Newsletter [July 12 - July 18]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
After several weeks of rapid freight rate increases, the market appears to be entering an important transition period.
Ocean carriers have successfully implemented multiple rounds of General Rate Increases (GRIs), supported by aggressive blank sailings, capacity discipline, and strong early peak season demand. However, we’re beginning to see slight improvements in vessel availability across select Asia trade lanes, creating the first signs that the market may be approaching an inflection point.
The first half of July will likely determine the direction of the remainder of the summer. If carriers maintain vessel utilization through continued blank sailings, additional pricing pressure may follow. If available space continues improving, market conditions could begin shifting back toward importers.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
CAPE Refund Program Continues Expanding
CBP continues processing IEEPA refund claims through the CAPE portal, with eligible importers continuing to receive refunds that include applicable government interest.
The program has now expanded into Phase 2, allowing additional eligible reconciliation entries to be submitted while Phase 1 processing continues. CBP continues encouraging importers to ensure their ACE Portal access and ACH refund information remain current. (GovDelivery)
Key Takeaway: Importers should continue monitoring refund eligibility and reconciliation activity as additional phases of CAPE are implemented.
Importer Compliance Remains a Focus
Although no major customs regulations were announced this week, CBP continues preparing implementation of enhanced importer compliance requirements announced earlier this summer.
Importers should continue reviewing:
Bond sufficiency
ACE account information
Importer of Record registration
Classification and valuation procedures
Supply chain documentation
Key Takeaway: Strong customs compliance today will position importers for a smoother transition as CBP phases in new enforcement requirements later this year.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Blank Sailings Continue Driving Market Conditions
Blank sailings remain the primary reason freight rates have stayed elevated despite some improvement in available capacity.
Carriers continue actively managing supply by:
Cancelling scheduled sailings
Consolidating services
Adjusting vessel deployments
Carefully controlling booking allocations
These actions have allowed multiple rounds of GRIs to remain largely intact while preventing excess capacity from entering the market. (EWC)
Although securing space has become slightly easier on some services, many Asia origins still require earlier booking lead times than normal.
Key Takeaway: Capacity management—not demand alone—continues to be the primary driver of today’s freight market.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
Our focus over the next several weeks remains on one key question:
Can carriers continue maintaining pricing discipline?
JR Global is closely monitoring:
July GRI performance
Additional blank sailing announcements
Vessel utilization
Asia export demand
Equipment availability
CAPE refund processing
If current utilization levels remain strong, carriers may continue supporting elevated freight rates. However, if capacity continues opening and booking demand moderates, pricing could begin fluctuating more in favor of importers during the second half of July.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Blank sailings continue supporting elevated freight rates
July GRIs remain largely intact across major trade lanes
Space availability has improved slightly but advance planning remains essential
CAPE Phase 2 is now expanding refund eligibility
Refunds continue processing with applicable government interest
CBP importer compliance initiatives remain on track
Ocean carriers continue investing in integrated logistics capabilities
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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