Newsletter [May 10 - May 16]

Written By Richard Roman Jr

Good Morning

A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr

This week’s market feels more stable operationally on the surface, but pricing and capacity pressure continue building underneath.

Carriers are adapting to ongoing disruption rather than reacting to it. Networks have become more structured following recent Middle East rerouting, but at the same time, General Rate Increases (GRIs) moved aggressively this week across several trade lanes as carriers continue actively managing capacity.

The result is a market where shipments are still moving — but flexibility, equipment positioning, and pricing stability are becoming more sensitive.

The Roundup

What moved the world this week

Customs & Trade Policy Update

CAPE Focus Shifts from Launch to Execution

With the CAPE refund portal now active, industry focus has shifted from rollout to execution.

Submission volume continues increasing rapidly as importers actively pursue IEEPA duty recovery through ACE.

Current Processing Expectations:

  • Refund timelines remain approximately 60–90 days

  • Refunds expected to include applicable government interest

  • Refunds issued electronically via ACH only

Phase 1 currently includes:

  • Unliquidated entries

  • Entries liquidated within approximately 80 days

  • Entries under extension, suspension, or review

  • Warehouse entries and withdrawals

As processing volume scales, proper sequencing, eligibility review, and ACE readiness are becoming increasingly important to avoid delays.

Cost Pressure Continuing Across Multiple Modes

Broader cost pressure continues building across logistics networks:

  • Fuel-related surcharges remain elevated

  • Trucking and inland transportation costs continue rising

  • Air freight markets remain cautious amid ongoing jet fuel and routing concerns

The market is no longer reacting to disruption — it is learning to operate within it.

Supply Chain & Logistics News

Carrier Networks Stabilizing — But Pricing Pressure Returns

Global shipping networks continue adapting to longer routing cycles and operational changes tied to Middle East tensions.

Rather than broad service suspensions, carriers are focusing on:

  • Slow steaming to manage fuel and schedules

  • Additional port calls for consolidation

  • Controlled capacity deployment

  • More disciplined allocation management

At the same time, this week saw significant General Rate Increases (GRIs) across multiple trade lanes as carriers tightened capacity and pushed pricing higher ahead of expected volume increases.

While rates had softened modestly in prior weeks, this week’s increases reinforced that carriers remain committed to protecting utilization and preventing excess capacity from building too quickly.

Early Equipment Pressure Continuing

We continue to observe early-stage tightening involving 20GP equipment in select origin markets.

This does not represent a widespread shortage, but it reflects a broader trend:

  • Equipment circulation remains uneven

  • Containers are spending longer outside normal repositioning cycles

  • Carrier-controlled allocation is becoming more noticeable

This past week, we again encountered situations requiring additional coordination due to tighter TEU allocation on bookings into New York.

Shipments are still moving normally overall, but planning timelines are becoming increasingly important, particularly for specialized equipment and heavier cargo.

The Forecast

Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global

Current market conditions remain manageable, but operational flexibility continues tightening gradually.

Key areas we continue monitoring:

  • Equipment positioning and 20GP availability

  • Carrier allocation discipline

  • Transit variability tied to rerouting and consolidation

  • CAPE refund processing timelines as submission volume increases

  • Continued carrier pricing discipline through GRIs and surcharge programs

Rather than sudden disruption, the more likely near-term environment is one of gradually tighter execution windows and increasing importance of proactive planning.

The Shortcut

Smart tips for smart shippers

  • Significant GRIs pushed rates higher across multiple trade lanes this week

  • Carriers continue disciplined allocation and capacity management

  • Early 20GP equipment pressure continues in select lanes

  • CAPE submissions continue ramping up through ACE

  • Refund timelines remain approximately 60–90 days with interest

  • Fuel and operating cost pressure remain elevated across transportation modes

The Playlist

What the JR team is listening to this week in the office

Spotify Playlist

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Richard Roman Jr
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Newsletter [May 3 - May 9]