Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
The ocean freight market is beginning to show clearer signs of softening as we move further into November.
After several months of elevated rates, carriers are now facing increasing pressure from moderating demand, improving port conditions, and additional vessel capacity returning to the market.
While this is encouraging for importers, the situation remains complicated. Labor negotiations at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have introduced another potential disruption, while changes to global vessel routings continue affecting schedules and capacity.
On the trade side, the United States and China remain engaged in discussions surrounding existing trade commitments, particularly rare earths, critical minerals, and agricultural purchases.
As we approach year-end, the focus is shifting from securing space at almost any cost to identifying reliable and competitive transportation options while preparing for early 2027.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
U.S.–China Trade Discussions Continue
The United States and China held another round of high-level trade discussions on November 6.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng regarding the implementation of previous trade commitments.
The discussions focused on several important areas:
Agricultural purchases
Rare earths and critical minerals
Implementation of existing trade agreements
Broader economic and trade relations
For importers and manufacturers, rare earths and critical minerals remain particularly important because of their role in electronics, automotive manufacturing, industrial equipment, and advanced technology.
Although the discussions signal continued engagement, no new tariff reductions were announced.
Our View
We believe these discussions are encouraging, but importers should continue calculating landed costs based on currently applicable tariffs rather than anticipating future reductions.
Source: USTR — Readout of November 6 U.S.–China Trade Discussions
Foreign Importer of Record Requirements: Preparing for 2027
CBP's recently announced foreign Importer of Record requirements remain an important upcoming compliance change.
The new framework is scheduled to take effect January 5, 2027, with additional verification responsibilities for customs brokers and foreign importers.
Companies importing into the United States through foreign entities should begin reviewing their importer structure, documentation, and customs brokerage arrangements.
This is especially important for businesses without an established U.S. presence.
JR Global continues evaluating the requirements and their potential impact on foreign importers.
Source: Federal Register — Foreign Importer of Record Requirements
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Ocean Freight Market Shows Increasing Signs of Softening
Ocean freight conditions are becoming more competitive as we move toward the end of the year.
Drewry's latest World Container Index declined again, reflecting softer conditions across major Trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe trade lanes.
Several developments are contributing to the change:
Moderating seasonal import demand
Improving congestion at major Chinese ports
Additional vessel capacity returning
Fewer blank sailings
Increased competition between carriers
This is an important change from the market we experienced throughout the summer and early fall.
Our View
For several months, carriers successfully maintained elevated pricing through capacity management and GRIs.
We are now beginning to see the balance shift.
While individual trade lanes and equipment types may still experience constraints, improving capacity could provide importers with greater flexibility and more competitive transportation options.
We expect this trend to remain an important factor through the remainder of November.
Source: Drewry — World Container Index, November 5
Blank Sailings Decline as Capacity Returns
Carriers are announcing fewer blank sailings as the market adjusts to softer demand.
According to Drewry, 46 blank sailings are currently expected across the major East–West trades over the next five weeks, representing approximately 6% of scheduled sailings.
That means approximately 94% of scheduled services are expected to operate.
Asia–Europe services account for the largest share of cancellations, followed by the eastbound Trans-Pacific.
This is significant because fewer cancellations generally mean more available vessel capacity and greater competition between carriers.
However, capacity returning does not automatically guarantee reliable schedules. Port congestion, equipment positioning, and changes to vessel rotations can still affect individual shipments.
Source: Drewry — Cancelled Sailings Tracker, November 6
Los Angeles and Long Beach: Potential Labor Disruption
An important operational development this week involves labor negotiations at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
The Pacific Maritime Association and ILWU Local 26 have agreed to extend their existing contract through November 20, avoiding an immediate potential strike.
The negotiations involve approximately 250 port watchmen responsible for terminal security, gate access, and monitoring cargo movements.
Although this represents a relatively small portion of the overall port workforce, a strike could disrupt operations at several major container terminals.
What Importers Should Know
Port operations are continuing while negotiations take place.
However, the November 20 deadline introduces another risk for cargo moving through Southern California.
Importers with time-sensitive shipments should monitor the situation and coordinate delivery planning accordingly.
Source: Reuters — Los Angeles and Long Beach Extend Labor Negotiations, November 9
Suez Canal Return Could Increase Global Vessel Capacity
The gradual return of container services through the Suez Canal is becoming another important factor in the global freight market.
Drewry reports that approximately 60% of Asia–Europe capacity is now using the Suez Canal route.
For much of the recent disruption, carriers rerouted vessels around Southern Africa, significantly increasing voyage times and requiring more vessels to maintain service schedules.
As ships return to shorter Suez routings, effective capacity increases.
This could create additional pricing competition, particularly on Asia–Europe services.
However, the transition also creates operational risks.
Vessels returning through the Suez Canal may arrive at European ports around the same time as vessels completing longer voyages around Africa, potentially creating temporary congestion.
Our View
We expect the return to Suez to be an important factor influencing global capacity heading into 2027.
While the long-term effect could be improved efficiency, importers should continue monitoring schedules during the transition.
Source: Drewry — November 5 Global Container Market Assessment
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
As we approach the final weeks of 2026, we believe the freight market may be entering a more favorable period for importers.
Improving vessel capacity, fewer blank sailings, and moderating seasonal demand are creating conditions that could lead to greater competition between carriers.
However, we do not expect every trade lane to move in the same direction.
Port labor negotiations, equipment availability, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty remain potential sources of disruption.
We are also beginning to look ahead to Chinese New Year on February 6, 2027.
Although the holiday is still several months away, importers with production requirements in January and February should begin coordinating with suppliers now.
The weeks leading up to Chinese New Year traditionally bring increased booking activity as factories attempt to move cargo before closing.
Our recommendation is to take advantage of improving freight flexibility while preparing early for first-quarter shipments.
On the customs side, we will continue monitoring U.S.–China trade developments, foreign Importer of Record requirements, and CAPE refund processing.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Ocean freight conditions are showing clearer signs of softening.
Improving port congestion and moderating demand are contributing to increased capacity.
Carriers are announcing fewer blank sailings.
Approximately 94% of scheduled major East–West sailings are expected to operate over the next five weeks.
Los Angeles and Long Beach port labor negotiations have been extended through November 20.
More Asia–Europe container services are returning through the Suez Canal.
U.S.–China discussions continue, with a focus on rare earths, critical minerals, and agricultural purchases.
Foreign Importer of Record requirements remain an important compliance issue heading into 2027.
Importers should begin reviewing early 2027 shipment forecasts ahead of Chinese New Year.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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