Newsletter [Oct 18 - Oct 24]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
The freight market is showing renewed strength following China’s Golden Week holiday, although conditions remain mixed across major trade lanes.
After several weeks of uncertainty surrounding returning capacity and post-holiday demand, freight rates have begun moving higher again. Carriers continue managing vessel capacity through blank sailings, while strong U.S. import demand is supporting elevated Trans-Pacific conditions.
On the customs side, an important legal development could expand the opportunity for importers to recover IEEPA duties. The Court of International Trade recently certified a class of importers seeking refunds on older, finally liquidated entries, potentially providing another avenue for recovery beyond the existing CAPE process.
As we move further into the fourth quarter, our focus remains on monitoring freight conditions, helping clients manage customs exposure, and preparing for changes that could affect supply chains heading into 2027.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
IEEPA Refunds: Court Certifies Importer Class
There has been an important development in the ongoing IEEPA refund litigation.
The U.S. Court of International Trade has certified a class involving importers seeking refunds of IEEPA duties paid on entries that have already become finally liquidated.
This is significant because many importers with older entries have been unable to participate in CAPE Phase 3 unless they previously filed litigation and obtained applicable court-ordered relief.
The class certification could eventually provide another avenue for importers that did not file individual lawsuits.
However, several important questions remain:
Whether the government will appeal the certification
How refunds for class members will be administered
Whether additional court orders will be required
When eligible importers could begin receiving payments
Importers should not assume class certification automatically makes their older entries eligible for CAPE Phase 3.
We recommend that importers with significant outstanding IEEPA duties review their liquidation history and discuss potential legal protections with qualified customs counsel.
JR Global continues assisting clients with CAPE eligibility reviews, entry data, and refund submissions.
Sources: Court of International Trade developments; Greenberg Traurig, October 19, 2026.
U.S.–Canada Tariffs Face New Legal Challenge
Another important development this week involves U.S. tariffs on Canadian merchandise.
A U.S. food importer has filed a lawsuit challenging the administration’s additional tariffs on certain Canadian products.
The case questions the administration’s use of Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a rarely used provision allowing retaliatory trade measures against countries accused of discriminatory treatment.
The lawsuit argues that the administration exceeded its authority in imposing the additional duties.
For importers, the immediate takeaway is that the tariffs remain applicable unless changed through a court ruling or official government action.
However, the challenge introduces additional uncertainty for companies sourcing from Canada.
Importers should continue reviewing their tariff exposure, country-of-origin determinations, and applicable USMCA treatment.
Source: Reuters, October 20, 2026.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Freight Rates Rebound Following Golden Week
The freight market is beginning to show renewed pricing strength following China’s Golden Week holiday.
Drewry’s latest World Container Index increased after several weeks of mixed performance, with higher rates on Asia–Europe services contributing to the overall increase.
Trans-Pacific conditions remain elevated, supported by resilient U.S. import demand and continued carrier capacity management.
Several factors are influencing the market:
Post-Golden Week cargo returning to the market
Continued blank sailings
Carrier allocation management
Equipment positioning challenges
Strong U.S. import demand
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty
While the market has not moved uniformly higher across every trade lane, the latest developments suggest carriers are continuing to defend pricing.
Our View
We had anticipated that additional capacity returning after Golden Week could create greater pricing competition.
While some services are showing improved availability, demand has remained resilient enough to support elevated conditions.
We believe the next several weeks will determine whether carriers can maintain current pricing through the remainder of the fourth quarter.
For clients with upcoming shipments, we continue recommending early coordination while maintaining flexibility between carriers and routings.
Source: Drewry World Container Index, October 15, 2026.
Suez Canal Returns Could Increase Global Capacity
Another development worth monitoring is the gradual return of container services through the Suez Canal.
Carriers have begun restoring additional services through the region as security conditions permit.
This is particularly significant for Asia–Europe shipping.
For much of the recent disruption, vessels were rerouted around Southern Africa, extending transit times and requiring additional vessel capacity to maintain schedules.
A sustained return to Suez would shorten vessel rotations and make more capacity available across global shipping networks.
However, the transition remains gradual, and security concerns continue influencing carrier decisions.
For importers, the potential benefit is improved transit efficiency and greater capacity availability over time.
The effect will depend on how quickly carriers restore services and whether cargo demand absorbs the additional capacity.
Source: Drewry World Container Index, October 15, 2026.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
As we move toward November, we believe the freight market is entering another period of adjustment.
On one hand, additional vessel capacity is returning, particularly as more services resume Suez Canal transits. On the other, U.S. import demand remains resilient, and carriers continue demonstrating their willingness to manage capacity through blank sailings.
Our team believes this balance will determine whether freight rates remain elevated or begin becoming more competitive as we approach year-end.
We are also beginning to look ahead to early 2027 shipment planning. Importers should consider production schedules, factory closures, and anticipated demand rather than waiting until the last minute to secure transportation.
On the customs side, the recent IEEPA class certification is encouraging, but it does not eliminate the need to review individual entries and preserve potential refund rights. We expect further court activity and CBP guidance to remain important over the coming months.
Our recommendation is to remain flexible, monitor developments closely, and continue planning shipments proactively.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Freight rates are showing renewed strength following Golden Week.
Trans-Pacific conditions remain elevated despite some improvement in available capacity.
Carriers continue managing supply through blank sailings and allocation controls.
Additional Suez Canal services could improve global vessel capacity over time.
The Court of International Trade certified a class involving importers seeking IEEPA refunds on older, finally liquidated entries.
Class certification does not automatically make all older entries eligible for CAPE Phase 3.
A new lawsuit challenges additional U.S. tariffs on certain Canadian products.
Importers should begin reviewing year-end and early 2027 shipment requirements.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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