Newsletter [Aug 16-Aug 22]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
Freight markets continue moving higher as we approach another important period for global shipping.
Trans-Pacific rates remain elevated, and carriers continue supporting the market through disciplined capacity management and blank sailings. This comes as importers begin planning around several major September and October holidays in Asia and Israel, which could create additional pressure on space before factory, office, and carrier schedules are disrupted.
At the same time, there has been an important development in the IEEPA refund process. CAPE Phase 3 has been cleared to proceed for certain finally liquidated entries associated with importers that have filed cases with the Court of International Trade.
For importers, the message this week is preparation. Upcoming holidays, elevated freight rates, and an increasingly complicated customs environment make advance planning particularly important over the next several weeks.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
CAPE Phase 3 Cleared to Move Forward
There has been an important development in the IEEPA tariff refund process.
The Court of International Trade has authorized CBP to move forward with CAPE Phase 3 processing for certain finally liquidated entries associated with importers that have filed IEEPA refund cases before the Court.
Phase 3 addresses entries that fall outside the liquidation windows covered by earlier CAPE phases.
This is important because liquidation status has been one of the biggest remaining obstacles to recovering older IEEPA duties.
However, Phase 3 should not currently be interpreted as a universal refund process for every importer with an older liquidated entry.
Importers should review their individual entry and litigation status before assuming Phase 3 eligibility.
Important CAPE Limitation: Drawback Claims
Another important detail has emerged regarding CAPE eligibility.
Certain categories of entries remain ineligible for CAPE processing regardless of phase, including entries currently designated on an active drawback claim.
Other exclusions can include entries associated with open protests, certain reconciliation entries, entries without an appropriate liquidation status in ACE, and other specialized entry situations.
This does not mean drawback itself has been eliminated or that Section 301 duties generally cannot qualify for drawback. It means that an entry already tied to a drawback claim may not simultaneously be processed through CAPE under the current refund procedures.
For importers with both IEEPA refund exposure and drawback activity, entry-level review is particularly important before determining the appropriate refund strategy.
CBP Increasing Focus on Transshipment
Another issue worth watching is the government’s increased focus on illegal transshipment.
The Administration recently highlighted alleged schemes involving Chinese-origin merchandise being routed through third countries to avoid U.S. tariffs and trade remedies.
With tariffs increasingly varying by country of origin, CBP scrutiny of manufacturing origin and supply-chain documentation is likely to remain elevated.
Importers should maintain documentation supporting:
Actual manufacturer
Country of origin
Production location
Classification
Valuation
Supply-chain movements
Simply routing merchandise through another country does not change its country of origin.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Freight Rates Continue Higher
Ocean freight rates remain elevated as carriers continue successfully supporting Trans-Pacific pricing.
Recent market data from Drewry showed its World Container Index increasing again, driven by higher Trans-Pacific rates.
The strength is being supported by several factors:
Continued carrier capacity management
Blank sailings
Firm Trans-Pacific volumes
Port and infrastructure congestion
Equipment positioning
Ongoing geopolitical disruption
Maersk also raised its full-year 2026 earnings outlook again last week, citing stronger global container demand and higher freight rates. The carrier specifically highlighted infrastructure bottlenecks as an important factor supporting today’s market.
Our View
Rates have demonstrated more staying power than we expected earlier this summer.
The market remains highly dependent on how aggressively carriers manage available capacity. If blank sailings continue while seasonal demand increases ahead of upcoming holidays, elevated rates could persist into September.
49 Blank Sailings Planned as Carriers Manage Capacity
Blank sailings remain one of the most important factors supporting the current freight market.
Drewry currently expects 49 cancelled sailings across the major East-West trades between August 17 and September 20, representing approximately 7% of scheduled sailings.
Importantly, 59% of those cancellations are concentrated on the eastbound Trans-Pacific, directly affecting Asia-to-North America capacity.
This allows carriers to reduce available supply when necessary and maintain stronger vessel utilization.
For importers, this means that even when overall demand does not appear exceptionally strong, space on specific vessels and services can tighten quickly.
September and October Require Advance Planning
We are also approaching a concentrated period of holidays that could affect international supply chains.
China’s Mid-Autumn Festival runs September 25–27, followed almost immediately by National Day Golden Week from October 1–7.
Factories and logistics providers typically experience increased booking activity before these closures as exporters attempt to move cargo before the holiday period.
Israel and companies observing the Jewish calendar also enter an important holiday period:
Rosh Hashanah: September 11–13
Yom Kippur: September 20–21
Sukkot: beginning September 25
Simchat Torah: October 2–4
The combination creates the potential for reduced staffing and scheduling constraints across multiple weeks.
Our recommendation: If you have cargo planned for September or early October, begin coordinating now rather than waiting until cargo is ready.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
The next six weeks could be another challenging period for international logistics.
Freight rates remain elevated, carriers continue removing capacity through blank sailings, and we are approaching a concentrated period of Asian and Jewish holidays.
We are closely monitoring:
Trans-Pacific freight rates
Additional GRIs
Blank sailing announcements
Space and equipment availability
Pre-holiday booking demand
CAPE Phase 3 implementation
Additional CBP guidance
Transshipment and origin enforcement
If you have September or early October shipments planned, now is the time to begin coordinating.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Trans-Pacific freight rates continue moving higher.
Recent GRIs have demonstrated greater staying power than expected.
49 blank sailings are currently projected across major East-West trades over the next five weeks.
59% of those cancellations are concentrated on the eastbound Trans-Pacific.
China Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week are approaching.
Jewish holidays beginning in September may also affect schedules and staffing.
CAPE Phase 3 has been cleared to proceed for certain finally liquidated entries associated with CIT plaintiffs.
Entries tied to active drawback claims remain ineligible for CAPE processing under the current procedures.
CBP and the Administration continue increasing scrutiny of transshipment and country-of-origin compliance.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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The next several weeks will require more planning than usual.
Between elevated freight rates, carrier capacity management, upcoming holiday closures, and continued changes to customs and refund procedures, early visibility provides significantly more options.
If you have shipments planned for September or October, or would like assistance reviewing CAPE refund eligibility, drawback considerations, or tariff exposure, JR Global is here to help.