Newsletter [Aug 9-Aug 15]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
The freight market continues to surprise on the upside.
After several rounds of increases this summer, the August General Rate Increase (GRI) has continued to hold across key Trans-Pacific trade lanes. Freight rates moved higher again this past week, supported by firm booking volumes, carrier capacity management, and ongoing congestion at several Asian gateways.
We had previously expected increasing space availability to put more pressure on rates. While that remains something we are watching closely, the market has so far demonstrated greater strength than anticipated.
At the same time, the customs environment continues to become more complex. With Section 122 behind us, the new Section 301 tariff structure is now in effect across dozens of trading partners, while CBP continues increasing its focus on importer compliance and enforcement.
The common theme remains preparation: freight and customs conditions can change quickly, and flexibility continues to provide the greatest advantage.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
Section 301 Is Now Part of the New Tariff Landscape
Following the expiration of Section 122, USTR’s new Section 301 measures covering 60 economies are now in effect.
The actions generally establish tariffs of 10% or 12.5%, subject to the specific country and product treatment.
This represents an important shift for importers.
Instead of one broad temporary surcharge, tariff exposure increasingly requires analysis of:
Country of origin
HTS classification
Applicable Section 301 measures
Section 232 exposure
AD/CVD applicability
Available exclusions or special treatment
The result is a customs environment where two companies importing similar products from different origins may face significantly different landed costs.
Importers should review sourcing and classification decisions carefully under the new framework.
Enforcement Risk Continues to Increase
Customs enforcement is becoming another important story for importers.
CBP continues increasing its focus on high-risk imports, while the broader enforcement environment is placing greater attention on classification, valuation, country of origin, transshipment, and importer due diligence.
This comes alongside the Administration’s previously announced plans to strengthen Importer of Record requirements, increase importer vetting, and introduce stronger financial and bonding standards.
For importers, documentation that supports where a product was manufactured, what it is, what it is worth, and how it moved through the supply chain is becoming increasingly important.
The new tariff environment makes this especially significant. As duty rates vary more by country and product, CBP has greater incentive to scrutinize transactions where origin, classification, or valuation materially changes the duties owed.
CAPE Refund Update
CBP continues processing eligible IEEPA refunds through CAPE.
Importers should continue monitoring refund activity through ACE, as CBP does not provide refund-status updates by email.
Refund processing remains separate from the new Section 301 tariff framework. Eligible historical IEEPA refund claims should continue to be monitored regardless of the tariffs currently applying to new imports.
JR Global continues assisting clients with identifying eligible entries and navigating the CAPE process.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
August GRI Holds as Freight Rates Continue Climbing
The August GRI has proven more successful than initially expected.
Drewry’s World Container Index increased again this past week following three consecutive weeks of declines. Trans-Pacific rates showed particular strength, with Shanghai–New York increasing 4% and Shanghai–Los Angeles increasing 3%.
Several factors continue supporting higher rates:
Firm Trans-Pacific booking volumes
Carrier blank sailings and capacity management
Congestion across parts of central and southern China
Controlled carrier allocations
Continued geopolitical disruption affecting global vessel networks
Carriers have demonstrated that they are willing to remove capacity when necessary to maintain vessel utilization and support pricing.
Our View
The August increases have held better than we initially expected. However, we still believe the balance between available space and booking demand will ultimately determine how sustainable current pricing is.
If capacity continues opening, rates could become more competitive. If carriers continue successfully managing capacity through blank sailings while demand remains firm, elevated pricing could extend further into the third quarter.
For importers, advance forecasting remains important—but flexibility between carriers and services may also create opportunities as the market changes.
Geopolitical Risk Remains a Wild Card
The Middle East remains an important source of uncertainty for global transportation.
Recent attacks on commercial shipping and continued uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Iran negotiations demonstrate that the situation has not fully normalized.
Beyond vessels directly operating in the region, prolonged disruption can affect fuel costs, vessel rotations, insurance expenses, and global equipment positioning.
For importers, this remains one of the largest external risks capable of quickly changing otherwise improving capacity conditions.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
The freight market has shown more resilience than we expected entering August.
Carriers have successfully maintained the latest GRI, and Trans-Pacific rates continue moving higher despite earlier signs of improving capacity.
The next question is whether demand can continue supporting those levels.
We are closely monitoring:
Asia–U.S. booking volumes
Additional carrier GRIs
Blank sailing announcements
Space and equipment availability
China port congestion
Middle East developments
Additional Section 301 actions
CBP enforcement and importer requirements
If carriers maintain capacity discipline and volumes remain firm, elevated rates could continue. If available space begins outpacing demand, we could see pricing become more competitive later in the quarter.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
The August GRI has held better than initially expected.
Trans-Pacific freight rates moved higher again this past week.
Firm volumes, blank sailings and China congestion are supporting the market.
Carrier capacity management remains a major factor behind elevated rates.
Middle East geopolitical risk remains a potential source of additional disruption.
New Section 301 tariffs covering 60 economies are now in effect.
Country of origin and classification are increasingly important to landed-cost planning.
CBP continues increasing its focus on customs enforcement and importer compliance.
CAPE refund processing continues.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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This week’s market reinforces why it is important to remain flexible.
Freight rates have continued higher despite earlier signs that capacity could loosen, while the customs environment is becoming increasingly dependent on country of origin and product-specific trade measures.
JR Global continues monitoring these developments from both the logistics and customs sides so we can help clients identify the best options as conditions change.
If you have upcoming shipments, sourcing questions, or would like assistance reviewing your tariff exposure, please reach out to our team.