Newsletter [Feb 8 - Feb 14]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
As we move deeper into the Chinese New Year shutdown period, global shipping activity is slowing at origin while trade policy developments continue to evolve. This week brought a notable update on U.S.–India tariffs, ongoing uncertainty around the Supreme Court’s IEEPA decision, and continued attention on strategic infrastructure moves around the Panama Canal.
While the operational market is quiet during the holiday period, the policy landscape remains active—and those changes will shape trade flows as we move into the post-CNY restart.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
Bangladesh–U.S. trade agreement introduces 19% tariff framework
The United States and Bangladesh have finalized a reciprocal trade agreement establishing a 19% tariff on most Bangladeshi imports, along with a pathway to zero-tariff treatment for certain garments made using U.S. cotton or man-made fibers.
Key elements include:
Gradual reduction of Bangladeshi tariffs on U.S. agricultural and industrial goods
Recognition of U.S. regulatory standards to reduce non-tariff barriers
Commitments to purchase approximately $15 billion in U.S. energy
Continued duty-free access for select pharma ingredients and aircraft parts
Because ready-made garments represent over 80% of Bangladesh’s export earnings, the zero-tariff pathway tied to U.S. materials could significantly influence sourcing strategies.
Takeaway: This agreement could reshape apparel sourcing decisions, especially for importers evaluating duty optimization strategies.
India tariff update: Russian oil duty removed, reciprocal cut pending
The U.S. has formally eliminated the additional 25% emergency duty tied to India’s purchases of Russian oil.
Effective February 7, 2026:
The 25% surcharge has been removed
Chapter 99 provisions terminated
Refunds to be processed where applicable
Separately, the broader reciprocal tariff on Indian goods is expected to drop from 25% to 18%, though CBP implementation guidance is still pending.
Takeaway: The removal of the oil-related surcharge is immediate, while the broader reciprocal tariff reduction is still awaiting operational rollout.
Taiwan reciprocal tariff change still pending
A similar reciprocal tariff adjustment involving Taiwan remains pending formal executive order and CBP implementation.
Takeaway: No operational change yet—importers should continue planning under current rates until official guidance is issued.
New U.S. tariff framework tied to oil shipments to Cuba
A recent executive order creates a framework to impose tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, though no tariffs have been applied yet.
Takeaway: This is a structural policy tool, not an immediate tariff change—but it introduces a new potential risk factor for certain trade lanes.
Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs still pending
The Supreme Court has not yet issued its ruling on the challenge to tariffs imposed under IEEPA. The Court is currently in recess and scheduled to return on February 20.
Takeaway: Tariffs remain in effect, and importers should continue planning under current duty structures until a decision is released.
Tariff refunds: ACE account required
Importers expecting potential tariff refunds must have:
An active ACE account
ACH refund information properly configured
Refunds are issued electronically through CBP, and companies without this setup may face delays.
How JR Global can help: We can assist with ACE account setup and refund configuration if needed. — 📧 sales@shipjr.com
Takeaway: Proper ACE setup is essential to receiving any potential tariff refunds.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Maersk–Panama developments remain in focus
Recent court developments have cleared the way for Maersk to take over key port operations near the Panama Canal, a strategic move in one of the world’s most important trade corridors.
The Panama Canal remains critical for Asia–U.S. East Coast and Latin America trade lanes, and this development reflects the ongoing trend toward carrier-controlled terminals and vertically integrated logistics networks.
While there is no immediate disruption expected, these types of structural shifts can influence:
Long-term service rotations
Terminal priorities and berth allocation
Canal-related capacity planning
Competitive positioning among carriers
Takeaway: This is a long-term strategic shift, not a short-term disruption—but it reinforces the importance of working with partners who can navigate evolving carrier networks.
Chinese New Year: factory shutdowns underway
Chinese New Year shutdowns are now in effect, with many factories and Asia-based offices closing this week. This marks the start of a multi-week slowdown in production, bookings, and origin operations across major manufacturing hubs.
What this means for shippers:
Limited ability to resolve documentation or booking issues
Reduced sailing options as carriers adjust capacity
Gradual restart expected through late February
Takeaway: If cargo is not already booked or at origin, it will likely move after the holiday period. Planning now for post-CNY shipments will help avoid the next wave of congestion.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
Right now, the operational market is in a temporary slowdown due to Chinese New Year, but policy developments are setting the stage for what trade flows may look like in the months ahead.
The U.S.–India tariff reduction signals a potential shift toward more targeted bilateral agreements, while the pending Supreme Court decision could reshape how emergency tariffs are applied in the future. At the same time, strategic moves around the Panama Canal highlight the continued consolidation of carrier-controlled infrastructure.
As factories reopen post-CNY, we expect a short-term surge in demand, followed by the typical rate and capacity normalization cycle into early spring.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers — key takeaways from this week’s newsletter
Maersk moving toward control of key Panama Canal port operations.
Chinese New Year shutdowns now underway across Asia.
U.S.–India reciprocal tariff cut from 25% to 18%; Russian oil surcharge removed.
Taiwan reciprocal tariff change still pending.
New U.S. framework could impose tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba.
Supreme Court IEEPA tariff decision expected after February 20.
ACE account required to receive any potential tariff refunds.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
Sources
Al Jazeera — Shipping giant Maersk to take over Panama Canal ports after court ruling https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/2/4/shipping-giant-maersk-to-take-over-panama-canal-ports-after-court-ruling