Good Morning

A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr

The market remains firmly in pre-CNY mode — tight capacity, shifting schedules, and elevated demand across ocean freight. If you’re moving shipments ahead of factory slowdowns and holiday closures, this is the moment to plan proactively. JR Global is here to help you prioritize what matters most.

If you have shipments moving over the next few weeks, now is the time to get ahead of it. JR Global is here to help you prioritize what matters most, protect key delivery timelines, and minimize disruption wherever possible. If you’re doing any shipment planning, please reach out early so we can support you through this period: sales@shipjr.com.

The Roundup

What moved the world this week

Customs & Trade Policy Update

IEEPA tariff authority: The Supreme Court still hasn’t ruled

The Supreme Court still has not issued a decision on whether President Trump’s use of emergency tariff powers under IEEPA is lawful. That leaves importers in limbo for now—no change to duty treatment, and CBP continues collecting duties as currently assessed.

If IEEPA is struck down: administration signals “next-day” replacement tariffs

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has publicly indicated that if the Court rules against the administration, they would move quickly to impose replacement tariffs using other legal authorities (commonly cited options include Section 301 and Section 232, among others). The takeaway: regardless of the Court outcome, tariffs remain a core feature of trade policy planning.

Supply Chain & Logistics News

Pre-CNY: earlier/longer factory wind-downs + tighter vessel space

We’re hearing from partners that some factories are winding down earlier and staying closed longer this year, which can happen when order books are softer and businesses consolidate production around the holiday shutdown. Regardless of the “why,” the operational impact is the same: less origin activity, fewer cutoffs met, and tighter lift as shippers push to move cargo before offices and factories close.

Blank sailings and capacity discipline remain the big driver of today’s tight space environment. Expect higher rolloverand delays from original ETDs, especially as carriers continue to adjust networks into the CNY window.

The Forecast

Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global

China’s 2025 trade surplus hit a record ~$1.2T as exports diversified

China posted a record trade surplus in 2025, with exports shifting away from the U.S. and growing in other regions. The practical implication for shippers: global lane imbalances and shifting demand patterns can keep pressure on certain trades—even when bilateral flows soften.

The Shortcut

Smart tips for smart shippers — key takeaways from this week’s newsletter

CNY is the driver right now: factory wind-downs + reduced working days = tight origin execution and fewer clean sailings.
Capacity is constrained: blank sailings + higher demand = tight space, higher rollovers, and ETD slippage.
Tariffs are still a live variable: Supreme Court hasn’t ruled on IEEPA, and the administration is signaling fast replacement tools if needed.
Action: If you’re planning late Jan / early Feb movement, contact us now so we can secure space, route smartly, and set expectations.

The Playlist

What the JR team is listening to this week in the office

Spotify Playlist

Sources

SCOTUSblog — “No tariff opinion” (context on the Court not ruling yet): https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/01/no-tariff-opinion/
American Association of Exporters and Importers (AAEI) — USTR seeks tariff continuity if SCOTUS rules against administration: https://aaei.org/ustr-seeks-tariff-continuity-if-scotus-rules-against-the-administration/
Dachser — Lunar New Year 2026: Key dates and impact (wind-downs 1–2 weeks early; closures up to a month+): https://www.dachser.com/en/mediaroom/Lunar-New-Year-2026-Key-Dates-and-Impact-on-Logistics-29867
Reuters — U.S. container imports down in Dec 2025 (macro softness alongside seasonal tightness): https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-container-imports-dropped-59-december-continued-china-slump-descartes-says-2026-01-08/
Reuters — China trade ends 2025 with record ~$1.2T surplus; export diversification: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-trade-ends-2025-with-record-trillion-dollar-surplus-despite-trump-tariffs-2026-01-14/
AP — China’s 2025 trade surplus record + regional export growth breakdown: https://apnews.com/article/china-economy-trade-surplus-record-59f6fcc80ee3afc204a024f57766d31

Newsletter [Jan 18 - Jan 24]