Newsletter [Jan 11 - Jan 17]

Written By Richard Roman Jr

Good Morning

A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr

We are now in the heart of the pre-Chinese New Year (CNY) rush, the busiest window of the year for global ocean freight. As carriers continue balancing capacity through blank sailings and routing adjustments, space remains tight and variable, and schedule reliability is under pressure.

2026 has already shown that this early window matters — blank sailings persist, demand remains elevated ahead of factory closures, and carriers are reluctant to release capacity. If you are planning to move shipments in the coming weeks, now is the time to engage with us so we can help you plan proactively, secure space, and avoid rollover delays.

The Roundup

What moved the world this week

Customs & Trade Policy Update

Focus on Tariff Environment & Compliance

Across 2026, customs and trade policy are evolving rapidly. Regulatory and compliance pressures continue to increase, and agencies are shifting from warnings to active enforcement. Recent expert commentary highlights that trade policy changes in 2026 may continue to impact duty structures, classification requirements, and customs risk. As enforcement activity becomes more proactive, accurate documentation, tariff classification, and compliance processes are essential.

Takeaway: Ensure your customs documentation, data, and supplier compliance are up to date — strong trade compliance capabilities help mitigate enforcement risk and avoid costly penalties.

Awaiting Court Decisions on Tariff Challenges

On the customs and trade policy front, no new rulings were issued this week. The industry continues to wait on court decisions related to ongoing tariff challenges, including cases that could impact the legality or refundability of certain duties imposed in recent years.

At this stage, there is no immediate change to duty treatment, and CBP continues to enforce tariffs as currently published. While potential outcomes could affect future strategy, timelines and remedies remain uncertain until formal court decisions are issued.

What this means for importers:

  • Continue to assume current tariff rates remain in force

  • Avoid making booking or pricing decisions based on speculative outcomes

  • Monitor liquidation timelines and consult counsel if exposure is material

  • JR Global will provide updates as soon as decisions are issued or guidance changes

Takeaway: This remains a watch-and-wait environment. Until courts rule, the best approach is disciplined compliance and proactive planning — not assumption of relief.

Supply Chain & Logistics News

Blank Sailings & Market Conditions Ahead of Chinese New Year

Carriers continue to manage capacity tightly in early 2026. According to recent ocean market data, significant blank sailing programs remain active through January and into early February as carriers match capacity with demand patterns and avoid oversupply in a soft import environment. Pre-CNY booking activity has already exerted upward pressure on space utilization and scheduling reliability across key East–West trades.

  • Blank sailings continue to shape the current market, with carriers using schedule cancellations to balance demand and fleet capacity.

  • CMA CGM is planning selective Suez service restarts in January, though not all carriers have committed, leaving routes and schedules in flux.

  • Suez Canal normalization remains tied to geopolitical stability and insurance costs, and carriers are watching closely before fully committing capacity there.

  • Takeaway: Space is tight, schedules are shifting, and carriers are still restricting capacity ahead of CNY. We strongly recommend early planning and space protection to avoid rollovers and delays.

Red Sea / Suez Canal Developments

Amid ongoing geopolitical dynamics, Maersk has begun reintroducing Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb transits following a prolonged rerouting period due to regional conflict. The company successfully navigated vessels through these routes in mid-January, illustrating cautious carrier willingness to resume conventional routings under improved security conditions. This shift can potentially shorten transit times and ease some capacity constraints if sustained, though carriers are proceeding with caution.

U.S. Container Import Trends — December 2025

According to market data, U.S. container imports fell 5.9% in December 2025 compared with the year before, reflecting fading stockpiling behaviour and softening demand from key origins such as China, India, South Korea, and Italy. Import trends remain an important backdrop for capacity management going into 2026.

Takeaway: While the macro environment shows soft import growth, seasonal pre-CNY booking and blank sailing programs are creating localized tightness. Understanding the nuanced interplay between macro trends and short-term booking patterns is critical to navigating 2026 successfully.

The Forecast

Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global

From our internal discussions this week, the pre-CNY period feels like a calibrated tension between demand and capacity. While broader import volumes have softened, the window ahead of CNY is disproportionately impactful, as carriers are tightly restricting capacity and consolidating services to manage utilization.

We expect the next 4–6 weeks to be the most critical for ocean bookings. Proactive planning — including early space reservation, alternate routing consideration, and inland coordination — will make the difference between on-time shipments and costly rollovers.

JR Global’s advice remains consistent: reach out early, engage on your projected shipments, and plan for contingencies. We can help you navigate service changes, blank sailings, and customs complexity as part of your 2026 strategy.

The Shortcut

Smart tips for smart shippers — key takeaways from this week’s newsletter

  • Blank sailings continue through late January/early February — space will remain restricted.  

  • Suez/Red Sea services restarting selectively — carriers proceeding cautiously.  

  • U.S. import volumes softened in December — nuanced demand patterns influence capacity choices.  

  • Trade compliance enforcement is rising — strong document/data readiness is essential.  

  • Pre-CNY planning matters most now — engage early to lock space and minimize rollover risk.

The Playlist

What the JR team is listening to this week in the office

Spotify Playlist
Richard Roman Jr
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Newsletter [Jan 4 - Jan 10]