Newsletter [Jan 4 - Jan 10]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
As we close the chapter on 2025, it’s worth reflecting on just how dynamic the container shipping market has been. Freight rates moved through sharp cycles, carriers relied heavily on capacity discipline, and blank sailings became a defining tool to manage volatility. Industry-wide, 2025 reinforced a key lesson: supply chains that planned early and stayed flexible performed best.
As we move into 2026, the market is already active with shippers pushing cargo ahead of Chinese New Year. At JR Global, our focus this year is simple — continue growing alongside our existing partners while fostering new relationships, and help our clients navigate what is shaping up to be another busy and complex year.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
Tariffs: What Is Actually on Hold (and What Is Not)
There is no broad tariff pause on food imports. The confirmed tariff action this month is a one-year delay of planned tariff increases affecting certain wood-derived products, including upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities. The higher tariff rates have been postponed until January 1, 2027, while current rates remain in place.
Separately, on the food side, the U.S. Department of Commerce has reduced proposed anti-dumping duties on Italian pasta producers following a review. A final determination is expected in March, and no new duties will apply until that process is completed.
Key Takeaways:
Furniture, cabinets, and vanities receive temporary tariff relief via delay, not elimination
Pasta imports from Italy may see adjusted duty exposure pending final Commerce rulings
Importers should avoid assuming broad food-category relief and instead review product-specific exposure
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Capacity Discipline: Blank Sailings Increase Ahead of CNY
Carriers are tightening capacity heading into the pre-Chinese New Year window. Drewry’s latest capacity tracker shows 35 blank sailings out of approximately 700 scheduled departures over the next five weeks (Weeks 02–06, early January through early February). The majority of these cancellations are concentrated on Transpacific eastbound and Asia–Europe/Mediterranean trades.
Market reporting also confirms that Transpacific spot rates jumped at the start of January, supported by carrier GRIs and pre-CNY demand. While some sailings remain available, space is tightening quickly as carriers manage utilization and limit oversupply.
Key Takeaway: Expect reduced sailing options and faster space fill-ups through early February. Early engagement is critical.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
From our internal discussions, the setup is familiar: capacity tightens first, pricing follows. With blank sailings already announced into early February and spot rates reacting quickly, we expect booking pressure to intensify as Chinese New Year approaches.
This is the window where planning makes the difference. JR Global is helping clients choose the most reliable sailings, secure space early, and manage landed-cost risk before the market fully tightens.
Market Note — Venezuela
There has been elevated China–Venezuela trade activity, driven mainly by energy shipments, with China remaining Venezuela’s largest crude destination into late 2025. However, much of this volume reflects cargoes arranged months earlier, and the outlook into 2026 remains uncertain due to renewed U.S. enforcement and sanctions pressure.
At this time, there is no clear evidence of a broad increase in containerized China-to-Venezuela trade. For U.S.-linked shippers, Venezuela remains a high-risk destination and should not be approached without full legal and compliance review.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers — key takeaways from this week’s newsletter
Capacity: Blank sailings are rising into early February; space is tightening
Rates: Pre-CNY demand is already pushing spot rates higher
Tariffs: Relief applies to furniture/wood products via delay, not broad food categories
Food imports: Italian pasta duties remain under review, not eliminated
Venezuela: High-risk market — avoid shipments without legal clearance
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
Sources
Drewry – Blank sailings tracker & weekly container insight https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/container-insights
Journal of Commerce – Transpacific spot rates rise on pre-Lunar New Year demand https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/transpacific-spot-rates-jump-ahead-lunar-new-year_20260102.html
Reuters – U.S. delays tariff hikes on furniture and wood products until 2027 https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-delays-tariff-hikes-furniture-wood-products-2025-12-20/
U.S. Department of Commerce – Italian pasta antidumping duty review update https://www.trade.gov/italian-pasta-antidumping-duty-review
Financial Times – U.S. reconsiders pasta tariffs after industry review https://www.ft.com/content/italian-pasta-us-tariff-review
Drewry – Lunar New Year impact on capacity and rates https://www.drewry.co.uk/maritime-research-opinions/lunar-new-year-shipping-impact
Lloyd’s List — https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156003/Venezuela-supply-effect-lagged-due-to-pre-blockade-cargo-and-ships-running-gauntlet
Financial Times — https://www.ft.com/content/f64826fa-5c36-4fb3-8621-ee0b9d9a1ff5