Newsletter [July 26 - August 1]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
This week marked an important transition for both the freight market and U.S. trade policy.
Ocean carriers announced another round of General Rate Increases (GRIs), pushing rates higher on several Asia–U.S. trade lanes. However, unlike previous increases, we believe this latest round may be more difficult to sustain. Capacity has gradually improved on certain services, and unless carriers continue aggressive blank sailings or demand strengthens, pricing pressure could ease as we move through August.
On the customs side, the uncertainty surrounding the expiration of the temporary Section 122 tariff has now been replaced with a new reality. The Administration has shifted to a broader Section 301 strategy, creating a more country-specific tariff framework that importers will need to navigate moving forward.
The common theme this week is that supply chain decisions are becoming more strategic. Success will depend less on reacting to headlines and more on understanding how freight markets and trade policy intersect.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
Section 301 Becomes the New Baseline
With the expiration of the temporary Section 122 surcharge, the Administration has implemented a new Section 301 tariff framework covering imports from approximately 60 trading partners.
The new measures generally establish additional duties of 10% or 12.5%, depending on the country, and are based on findings related to forced-labor enforcement rather than the temporary authority previously used under Section 122. The tariffs took effect immediately as Section 122 expired, avoiding a gap in tariff coverage.
For importers, this represents more than a legal change—it marks a shift toward a more targeted trade policy.
Rather than relying on one broad temporary tariff, duty exposure will increasingly depend on:
Country of origin
Product classification
Existing Section 301 actions
Section 232 duties where applicable
AD/CVD exposure
Product-specific exclusions
JR Global Insight: Importers should begin evaluating sourcing decisions on a country-by-country basis rather than assuming a uniform tariff environment.
Trade Policy Continues to Evolve
The Administration has indicated that additional Section 301 actions remain under consideration, suggesting trade policy will continue evolving throughout the second half of the year. For logistics and customs professionals, monitoring regulatory developments will remain just as important as monitoring freight markets.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Another GRI Takes Effect—But Will It Last?
Ocean carriers successfully implemented another round of GRIs this week, with rates increasing across several Asia–U.S. trade lanes.
The recent increases continue to be supported by:
Blank sailings reducing available vessel capacity
Controlled booking allocations by carriers
Equipment imbalances at several Asian origins
Peak-season cargo still moving through the network
Importers accelerating shipments ahead of recent tariff changes
Despite the increase, there are early signs that this GRI may be more difficult to maintain than previous rounds.
Space availability has improved modestly on some services, and the surge of front-loaded cargo ahead of tariff changes is beginning to normalize. If carriers do not continue removing capacity, competitive pricing pressure could return during August. Recent market indicators also suggest spot rates have begun leveling off after several consecutive weeks of increases.
JR Global Insight: We expect carriers to continue defending current pricing through capacity management, but the next few weeks will determine whether this latest GRI becomes the market floor or a short-term increase.
Compliance Is Becoming a Competitive Advantage
As tariff rules become increasingly country-specific, customs compliance is playing a larger role in supply chain strategy.
Questions that were once straightforward now require a more comprehensive review:
Is the country of origin correctly declared?
Are there opportunities under free trade agreements?
Do Section 301, Section 232, or AD/CVD measures apply?
Is the product classification still accurate?
Are valuation and origin documentation sufficient to support Customs review?
Companies that proactively review these areas will be better positioned to avoid unexpected duty exposure and clearance delays.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
August could become a transition month for both freight and customs.
On the logistics side, we’ll be watching whether carriers can maintain the latest GRIs as capacity gradually improves and front-loaded demand begins to normalize.
On the customs side, we expect additional country-specific trade actions to continue shaping tariff policy. The focus is no longer simply whether tariffs exist—but which countries, products, and industries are affected.
Importers that continuously review sourcing strategies and landed costs will be in the strongest position as trade policy continues to evolve.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Ocean carriers implemented another round of GRIs.
We believe the latest rate increase may be more difficult to sustain than previous rounds.
Blank sailings continue supporting freight pricing despite improving capacity.
The temporary Section 122 tariff has expired.
A new Section 301 framework now applies additional duties to imports from approximately 60 trading partners.
Country of origin is becoming increasingly important in tariff planning.
Customs compliance continues to play a larger role in supply chain strategy.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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