Newsletter [July 19-July 25]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
This week marks what may become one of the most significant turning points in U.S. trade policy this year.
While the logistics industry continues focusing on rising freight costs, a much larger shift appears to be taking place behind the scenes. The temporary Section 122 tariff is scheduled to expire on July 24, yet rather than signaling an end to tariff pressure, recent actions suggest the Administration is preparing to transition toward a more targeted, country-by-country approach.
At the same time, ocean carriers continue pushing another round of General Rate Increases (GRIs), with some Asia–U.S. trade lanes now exceeding $10,000 per FEU. Higher freight costs and continued tariff uncertainty are causing many importers to accelerate shipments, adding further pressure to an already constrained market.
Our advice remains unchanged: don’t make supply chain decisions based solely on headlines. The coming weeks could bring meaningful changes in both transportation costs and import duties.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
Section 122 Expires Friday… But the Tariff Story Doesn’t End There
The temporary Section 122 tariff is scheduled to expire on July 24, ending the Administration’s temporary global tariff authority unless replaced through another legal mechanism. (Barron’s)
While CBP has not yet issued implementation guidance, recent developments strongly suggest that the Administration intends to continue applying tariff pressure using Section 301 investigations rather than relying on broad temporary tariffs. (Quartz)
For importers, the important takeaway is simple:
Do not assume July 25 automatically means lower duties.
Instead, tariff exposure may increasingly depend on:
Country of origin
Individual Section 301 investigations
Industry-specific trade actions
Existing Section 232 duties
Future USTR determinations
Brazil Becomes the First Major Test Case
This week, the Administration finalized a 25% Section 301 tariff on a broad range of Brazilian products, marking the first major country-specific tariff action since announcing the expiration of the temporary Section 122 program. (Reuters)
Even more importantly, Brazil may simply be the beginning.
USTR is currently advancing additional Section 301 investigations involving:
Approximately 60 countries related to forced labor enforcement.
Separate investigations involving industrial overcapacity and unfair trade practices. (Reuters)
If implemented, these investigations could create a much more targeted tariff framework than the current global surcharge.
JR Global Insight: Rather than one tariff applying broadly, importers may soon face different duty rates depending on the country of origin and the outcome of individual Section 301 investigations. Supply chain planning is becoming increasingly country-specific.
CAPE Refund Update
CBP continues processing CAPE refund claims, with additional importers receiving refunds that include applicable statutory interest.
Importers should continue reviewing:
Refund eligibility
Liquidation status
ACE account information
ACH enrollment
Remaining unfiled eligible entries
The expiration of Section 122 does not affect eligible CAPE refund claims currently under review.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Another GRI Push Sends Some Trade Lanes Above $10,000
Ocean carriers announced another round of General Rate Increases this week as freight rates continue climbing across major Asia–U.S. trade lanes.
Unlike previous years, these increases are proving more sustainable because carriers continue aggressively managing available capacity rather than allowing supply to outpace demand.
Several factors continue supporting elevated freight rates:
Blank sailings reducing available vessel space
Tight equipment availability at several Asian origins
Controlled booking allocations by carriers
Importers accelerating shipments ahead of potential tariff changes
Early peak-season demand across key trade lanes
The result is a market where rates continue increasing despite only moderate improvements in vessel availability.
JR Global Insight: Today’s freight market is being driven just as much by carrier discipline as by cargo demand. As long as carriers continue controlling capacity, freight rates are likely to remain elevated into August.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
Over the next several weeks, we will be watching two developments closely.
First, whether carriers can successfully maintain another round of freight increases through continued blank sailings and disciplined capacity management.
Second, whether the Administration formally transitions from temporary global tariffs to a broader network of country-specific Section 301 actions.
If that transition continues, importers may need to evaluate sourcing decisions on a country-by-country basis rather than assuming a single tariff policy applies across all imports.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Carriers announced another round of GRIs across Asia–U.S. trade lanes.
Some freight rates now exceed $10,000 per FEU.
Blank sailings and controlled capacity continue supporting higher rates.
Section 122 is scheduled to expire on July 24.
Brazil became the first major country targeted under the Administration’s renewed Section 301 strategy.
Additional Section 301 investigations covering approximately 60 countries remain under review.
Country-specific tariff planning may become increasingly important during the second half of 2026.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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