Newsletter [June 28 - July 4]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
The freight market appears to be entering an important transition period.
After several weeks of aggressive General Rate Increases (GRIs), carriers have successfully maintained elevated freight rates through disciplined capacity management. Rather than allowing pricing to soften, carriers continue reducing available space through blank sailings and vessel deployment adjustments.
While we are beginning to see slightly improved space availability on select services, booking capacity out of Asia remains challenging, particularly for last-minute shipments. The first half of July will likely determine whether carriers can sustain current pricing or whether market conditions begin shifting back in favor of importers during the second half of the month.
Our recommendation remains the same: plan shipments early and provide forecasts as soon as possible to maximize routing and carrier options.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
CAPE Phase 2 Launches June 29
CBP has confirmed the launch of Phase 2 of the CAPE IEEPA refund process, expanding eligibility to include certain reconciliation entries while Phase 1 processing continues for eligible unliquidated and recently liquidated entries.
Importers receiving refunds should continue monitoring:
Refund eligibility
Entry reconciliation
Liquidation status
ACE account configuration
ACH enrollment
Refund payments continue to include applicable government interest and are generally being processed on an entry-by-entry basis rather than one consolidated importer payment.
As additional phases are implemented, we expect refund eligibility to continue expanding for more complex entry scenarios.
CBP Continues Moving Toward Stronger Importer Compliance
CBP continues preparing to implement the new importer enforcement initiative announced by the Administration.
The upcoming changes will significantly increase focus on:
Importer accountability
Bond sufficiency
Beneficial ownership disclosures
Supply chain transparency
Compliance history and importer “good standing”
Most of the larger importer registration and compliance requirements are expected to roll out over the next 180 days, giving businesses time to review their customs compliance programs before implementation.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Blank Sailings Continue Supporting Higher Freight Rates
Carrier capacity discipline remains the primary driver of today’s freight market.
Ocean carriers continue strategically managing supply through:
Blank sailings
Vessel deployment changes
Controlled booking allocations
Service adjustments across key trade lanes
These actions have allowed multiple rounds of GRIs to remain effective despite improving vessel availability on certain services.
Although space has opened slightly compared to recent weeks, securing bookings out of Asia continues to require significantly more advance planning than earlier this year.
Looking ahead, the market will closely watch July demand levels. If carriers maintain strong vessel utilization, additional rate increases remain possible later this month. If booking activity begins to slow and available capacity increases, pricing may begin fluctuating more in favor of importers.
Section 301 Reviews Continue
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative continues evaluating several ongoing trade actions involving countries including Vietnam and Brazil, while broader tariff negotiations continue across multiple trading partners.
Although no final tariff actions have been announced this week, these reviews could influence sourcing strategies and landed costs later this year.
Importers should continue monitoring developments as negotiations progress.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
The first half of July will likely determine the direction of the freight market for the remainder of the summer.
JR Global is closely monitoring:
Carrier success maintaining July GRIs
Additional blank sailing announcements
Asia booking demand
Vessel utilization
Equipment availability
CBP implementation of new importer requirements
CAPE refund processing and future phases
If current utilization levels remain strong, carriers may continue testing additional increases. However, if capacity continues opening and booking demand moderates, pricing could become more competitive during the second half of July.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
July GRIs remain largely in place across major trade lanes
Blank sailings continue supporting carrier pricing discipline
Space availability has improved slightly but remains tight for Asia exports
The first half of July will likely determine freight pricing through the remainder of the month
CAPE Phase 2 launches June 29, expanding refund eligibility to certain reconciliation entries
IEEPA refunds continue processing with applicable government interest
CBP continues preparing enhanced importer compliance requirements
Ongoing Section 301 reviews could influence future sourcing strategies
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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