Newsletter [June 21 - June 27]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
The ocean freight market continues to remain elevated as we move into July.
Over the past several weeks, carriers have successfully implemented multiple rounds of General Rate Increases (GRIs), pushing rates significantly higher compared to earlier this year. More importantly, these increases have continued holding in the market due to disciplined capacity management.
The biggest factor we are watching now is not only demand — but supply.
Carriers continue using blank sailings, vessel adjustments, and controlled allocation to balance available capacity. This has kept space tight, especially out of Asia, and has made securing bookings increasingly challenging even for importers accepting current market rates.
The first half of July will be an important indicator. If carriers successfully maintain current rate levels and space remains limited, additional increases could follow in the second half of the month.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
CAPE Refund Processing Continues
IEEPA refund processing through CAPE continues moving forward, with importers receiving payments from CBP.
Current observations:
Refunds continue processing through ACE
Payments include applicable government interest
Many refunds are being issued as individual entries are reviewed rather than one consolidated payment
Importers should continue monitoring refund status, liquidation timelines, and future CBP guidance.
Importer Compliance Requirements Remain a Focus
CBP continues moving toward stronger importer oversight and supply chain accountability.
Upcoming changes are expected to increase focus on:
Importer verification
Bond sufficiency
Accurate classification and valuation
Supply chain transparency
As enforcement increases, maintaining strong compliance procedures will become increasingly important.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Blank Sailings Continue Supporting Higher Freight Rates
Carrier capacity management remains one of the biggest drivers of the current market.
Although demand has improved with an earlier peak season push, carriers have also been actively controlling supply through:
Increased blank sailings
Vessel schedule adjustments
Service changes
Controlled space allocation
By reducing available capacity, carriers have been able to maintain stronger pricing power and prevent the market from quickly softening.
This has created a market where the challenge is not only negotiating rates — it is securing space.
Asia Export Space Remains Extremely Tight
Booking conditions out of Asia remain difficult across several major origins.
Current challenges include:
Fully committed vessels
Longer booking lead times
Increased rollover risk
Limited carrier allocation
Many carriers are prioritizing allocation management, making advance forecasting increasingly important.
Clients with upcoming shipments should provide visibility as early as possible so our team can secure space and evaluate the best available options.
July Will Determine the Next Direction
July will be an important turning point for ocean freight.
The key question:
Will carriers be able to maintain current pricing momentum?
If demand remains strong and blank sailings continue limiting available capacity, carriers may attempt additional increases later in July.
However, if volumes soften after the recent rush, the market may begin stabilizing.
Key areas we are monitoring:
Success of upcoming GRIs
Blank sailing announcements
Booking demand after the early peak season push
Equipment availability
Carrier allocation levels
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
The market remains operationally challenging, with carriers currently maintaining strong control.
Our focus over the coming weeks:
Will July GRIs continue holding?
Will carriers announce additional increases?
Will blank sailings continue supporting elevated rates?
Will Asia space availability improve?
At this stage, proactive planning remains the best strategy. Waiting until cargo is ready creates increased risk of delays, limited options, and higher costs.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Freight rates remain elevated after multiple successful GRIs
Blank sailings are helping carriers maintain pricing power
Space remains difficult to secure out of Asia
July will determine whether additional increases continue
Advance booking forecasts are strongly recommended
CAPE refunds continue processing with interest
CBP importer compliance changes remain an important item to monitor
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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