Newsletter [June 21 - June 27]

Good Morning

A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr

The ocean freight market continues to remain elevated as we move into July.

Over the past several weeks, carriers have successfully implemented multiple rounds of General Rate Increases (GRIs), pushing rates significantly higher compared to earlier this year. More importantly, these increases have continued holding in the market due to disciplined capacity management.

The biggest factor we are watching now is not only demand — but supply.

Carriers continue using blank sailings, vessel adjustments, and controlled allocation to balance available capacity. This has kept space tight, especially out of Asia, and has made securing bookings increasingly challenging even for importers accepting current market rates.

The first half of July will be an important indicator. If carriers successfully maintain current rate levels and space remains limited, additional increases could follow in the second half of the month.


The Roundup

What moved the world this week

Customs & Trade Policy Update

CAPE Refund Processing Continues

IEEPA refund processing through CAPE continues moving forward, with importers receiving payments from CBP.

Current observations:

  • Refunds continue processing through ACE

  • Payments include applicable government interest

  • Many refunds are being issued as individual entries are reviewed rather than one consolidated payment

Importers should continue monitoring refund status, liquidation timelines, and future CBP guidance.

Importer Compliance Requirements Remain a Focus

CBP continues moving toward stronger importer oversight and supply chain accountability.

Upcoming changes are expected to increase focus on:

  • Importer verification

  • Bond sufficiency

  • Accurate classification and valuation

  • Supply chain transparency

As enforcement increases, maintaining strong compliance procedures will become increasingly important.

Supply Chain & Logistics News

Blank Sailings Continue Supporting Higher Freight Rates

Carrier capacity management remains one of the biggest drivers of the current market.

Although demand has improved with an earlier peak season push, carriers have also been actively controlling supply through:

  • Increased blank sailings

  • Vessel schedule adjustments

  • Service changes

  • Controlled space allocation

By reducing available capacity, carriers have been able to maintain stronger pricing power and prevent the market from quickly softening.

This has created a market where the challenge is not only negotiating rates — it is securing space.

Asia Export Space Remains Extremely Tight

Booking conditions out of Asia remain difficult across several major origins.

Current challenges include:

  • Fully committed vessels

  • Longer booking lead times

  • Increased rollover risk

  • Limited carrier allocation

Many carriers are prioritizing allocation management, making advance forecasting increasingly important.

Clients with upcoming shipments should provide visibility as early as possible so our team can secure space and evaluate the best available options.

July Will Determine the Next Direction

July will be an important turning point for ocean freight.

The key question:

Will carriers be able to maintain current pricing momentum?

If demand remains strong and blank sailings continue limiting available capacity, carriers may attempt additional increases later in July.

However, if volumes soften after the recent rush, the market may begin stabilizing.

Key areas we are monitoring:

  • Success of upcoming GRIs

  • Blank sailing announcements

  • Booking demand after the early peak season push

  • Equipment availability

  • Carrier allocation levels


The Forecast

Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global

The market remains operationally challenging, with carriers currently maintaining strong control.

Our focus over the coming weeks:

  • Will July GRIs continue holding?

  • Will carriers announce additional increases?

  • Will blank sailings continue supporting elevated rates?

  • Will Asia space availability improve?

At this stage, proactive planning remains the best strategy. Waiting until cargo is ready creates increased risk of delays, limited options, and higher costs.


The Shortcut

Smart tips for smart shippers

  • Freight rates remain elevated after multiple successful GRIs

  • Blank sailings are helping carriers maintain pricing power

  • Space remains difficult to secure out of Asia

  • July will determine whether additional increases continue

  • Advance booking forecasts are strongly recommended

  • CAPE refunds continue processing with interest

  • CBP importer compliance changes remain an important item to monitor


The Playlist

What the JR team is listening to this week in the office



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Newsletter [June 14 - June 20]