Newsletter [Nov 16 - Nov 22]

Good Morning

A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr

As we close out November, global trade policy is shifting rapidly — with new exclusions to reciprocal tariffs, expanding trade frameworks with El Salvador, and continued legal scrutiny over tariff authority in the U.S.

At the same time, freight and port infrastructure worldwide is evolving in ways that will reshape routing options, compliance requirements, and cost structures heading into 2026.

At JR Global, our priority remains the same: translate fast-moving global developments into clear, actionable strategy for your supply chain. This week’s updates highlight the importance of planning, visibility, and proactive tariff management.


The Roundup

What moved the world this week

Customs & Trade Policy Update

Updates to Annex I & II – Food & Agricultural Tariff Exclusions

The White House issued updates to Annex I & II, expanding exclusions for reciprocal tariffs on numerous food and agricultural products.

Key additions include:

  • Coffee, tea, cocoa-derived goods

  • Tropical fruits and produce not grown in sufficient U.S. quantities

  • Certain fertilizers and agricultural inputs

This expansion reduces tariff exposure for importers whose products fall under the updated Annex structure.

U.S.–El Salvador Framework Agreement

The U.S. and El Salvador have announced a new reciprocal trade framework, expected to be finalized in the coming weeks. Under this agreement:

  • The U.S. will remove reciprocal tariffs on Salvadoran exports that cannot be grown, mined, or produced in the U.S. in sufficient quantities.

  • Textile and apparel products under CAFTA-DR origin also qualify.

  • The U.S. will consider the agreement’s effect when executing trade actions under Section 232.

This signals a deeper shift toward hemispheric integration and may influence tariff exposure for importers sourcing from Central America.

Supreme Court Review – Tariff Authority Revisited

The Supreme Court continues to review whether the President has the authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act). Justices have expressed skepticism over its broad application, and while no ruling has been issued this week, the case has major implications:

  • Future tariff actions may face new limits

  • Some reciprocal or IEEPA-based tariffs could be struck down

  • Importers may gain eligibility for retroactive refunds

Supply Chain & Logistics News

Major Rail Consolidation: Union Pacific + Norfolk Southern ($85B)

The biggest rail development this year comes from the Union Pacific (UP) and Norfolk Southern (NS) merger, valued at $85 billion. The merged company would form the first true coast-to-coast U.S. freight railroad, combining UP’s Western network with NS’s Eastern network.

Why this impacts shippers:

  • Potential for higher rates due to reduced competition

  • Possible better long-haul reliability (fewer handoffs)

  • Near-term integration risks, including service delays

  • Increased leverage by a mega-carrier in inland routing markets

  • STB regulatory approval still pending but momentum is strong

Additional Rail Infrastructure Consolidation

Beyond the UP–NS mega-merger, the rail sector also saw:

  • FTAI Infrastructure acquiring The Wheeling Corporation (owner of Wheeling & Lake Erie Railway) for $1.05 billion

  • Growing pressure on BNSF and CSX as market concentration increases

  • Strategic buyers expanding rail infrastructure holdings nationwide

Egypt Port & Rail Expansion

Egypt continues large-scale modernization across Alexandria Port and national rail networks, aiming to strengthen its position as a regional logistics hub and reduce congestion along the Suez corridor.

EU Ending De Minimis for E-Commerce

The EU is eliminating de minimis thresholds for e-commerce parcels, meaning:

  • All shipments require customs clearance

  • VAT applies to every package

  • More paperwork, slower flows, and higher delivery costs

Additional Global Port News

  • Singapore & Busan are experiencing rising early-peak congestion

  • Latin American ports expanding infrastructure investments

  • Northern Europe seeing winter-related vessel delays


The Forecast

Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global

As a team, we’ve been discussing how this week’s developments point to a broader shift in global trade and logistics. The expanding Annex I & II exclusions and the U.S.–El Salvador framework show that Washington is clearly moving toward deeper hemispheric integration — and we expect more tariff relief and restructuring across CAFTA-DR partners in the months ahead. At the same time, the Supreme Court’s IEEPA case keeps a layer of uncertainty around future tariff authority, so our advice to clients is to stay flexible and prepare for both opportunity and volatility in duty exposure.

On the logistics side, the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger stands out as the most consequential industry move this year. A coast-to-coast rail operator could reshape inland costs, reliability, and routing strategies. We anticipate competitive pressure easing in the rail market, which may lead to higher rates and more standardized routing — but also increased vulnerability during network disruptions. Meanwhile, Egypt’s port and rail expansion and the EU’s elimination of de minimis signal that global routing and compliance requirements will continue to evolve.

Internally, JR Global is focused on modeling these changes proactively for our clients — from tariff impact dashboards to alternative inland and global routing options. Our priority is ensuring every shipper has clarity and a strategic playbook as these shifts take shape.


The Shortcut

Smart tips for smart shippers — key takeaways from this week’s newsletter

  • Audit tariffs on key SKUs: Review HTS classifications for food, ag, coffee/tea/cocoa, and fertilizer products to see if they now qualify under expanded Annex I & II exclusions.

  • Prepare for a tariff reset: Track the Supreme Court’s IEEPA case and reach out to us to build a playbook for quick changes to pricing, sourcing, and contracts—plus identify lanes where retroactive tariff refunds might be possible.


The Playlist

What the JR team is listening to this week in the office

Spotify Playlist

Sources

  1. White House Fact Sheet – Reciprocal Tariff Modifications

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-following-trade-deal-announcements-president-donald-j-trump-modifies-the-scope-of-the-reciprocal-tariffs-with-respect-to-certain-agricultural-products/

  2. Reuters – U.S. expands exclusions for agricultural items

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-remove-tariffs-some-products-ecuador-argentina-guatemala-el-salvador-2025-11-13/

  3. White House Joint Statement – U.S.–El Salvador Agreement

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/11/joint-statement-on-framework-for-united-states-el-salvador-agreement-on-reciprocal-trade/

  4. Reuters – Highlights of U.S. agreements with El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador & Argentina

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/highlights-us-framework-trade-deals-with-argentinas-el-salvador-guatemala-2025-11-14/

  5. SCOTUSBlog – IEEPA Tariff Authority Review https://www.scotusblog.com

  6. SupplyChain360 – Supreme Court Questions Tariff Powers

    https://supplychain360.io/supreme-court-questions-trumps-use-of-tariff-powers/

  7.  AP News – UP & NS Seek First Transcontinental Railroad https://apnews.com/article/b15664ec5cc55b985a0a32a1bf990d41

  8. New Orleans City Business – Shareholders Approve Merger

    https://neworleanscitybusiness.com/blog/2025/11/14/union-pacific-norfolk-southern-85b-rail-merger-approved/

  9. The Guardian – Safety & Disruption Concerns

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/25/union-pacific-norfolk-southern-railroad-merger

  10. Reuters – FTAI Infrastructure to Buy Wheeling Corp

    https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/ftai-infrastructure-buy-wheeling-corp-105-billion-2025-08-06/

  11. Daily News Egypt – Port & Rail Expansion

    https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2025/09/14/egypt-invites-us-investment-in-ports-shipping-and-rail-sectors/

  12. Global Trade Magazine – End of De Minimis

    https://www.globaltrademag.com/the-end-of-de-minimis-how-global-ecommerce-brands-can-adapt-and-win-in-the-new-u-s-trade-era/

Next
Next

Newsletter [Nov 9 - Nov 15]