Newsletter [Nov 30 - Dec 6]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
As we head toward year-end, global freight enters its annual transition window — the period between the end of peak-season demand and the start of Chinese New Year planning. While the headlines feel quieter this week, the logistics environment is anything but still. Carriers are adjusting capacity, shippers are finalizing holiday movements, and factory closures in Asia will soon reshape production and booking cycles.
At JR Global, our focus is on helping clients make smart, proactive decisions before the next wave of congestion begins.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
Costco Files Federal Lawsuit Challenging IEEPA Tariffs
This week, Costco Wholesale filed a high-profile lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade challenging the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The retailer is seeking:
Full refunds of duties paid under the emergency tariff orders
A ruling that the President exceeded statutory authority
Protection against losing refund eligibility once entries “liquidate”
This lawsuit adds significant momentum to the growing list of importers challenging the tariffs — and further pressures the Supreme Court’s ongoing review of IEEPA authority.
Why This Matters (Takeaways):
Potential for retroactive refunds if courts invalidate IEEPA-based tariff actions
Heightened landed-cost uncertainty for goods clearing customs now
Importers should evaluate whether duty-deferral strategies or delayed entry are advisable for high-value shipments
Companies that do not file protective claims risk missing out on refunds if liquidation occurs before a ruling
Ongoing Supreme Court Review of Tariff Authority
The Supreme Court continues its review of whether the President can impose tariffs under IEEPA without Congressional approval. Although no new ruling was issued this week, the Costco lawsuit reinforces how consequential this case is for importers across all sectors.
Why This Matters (Takeaways):
A ruling limiting IEEPA authority could invalidate years of emergency tariffs
Importers may gain access to large-scale refunds, depending on timing
Supply Chain & Logistics News
“Quiet Period” Begins as Carriers Adjust Schedules
We are now in the post-peak quiet period when ocean carriers begin to rebalance capacity, implement blank sailings, and reduce weekly sailings to match softer demand. This typically results in:
Reduced weekly departures from major Asia origins
Longer transits or schedule irregularities
Carriers repositioning equipment for Chinese New Year demand
This is normal for this time of year, but importers should account for less sailing frequency and avoid assuming weekly schedules remain constant.
Global Trade Outlook: Rising Uncertainty from Tariffs & Macro Pressures
The OECD and UNCTAD reported that global trade faces increasing pressure from a combination of tariffs, geopolitical risk, and tightening financial conditions. While not tied to a specific regulatory action this week, the broader environment remains volatile.
Why This Matters (Takeaways):
Expect slower global trade growth heading into early 2026
Commodity-linked importers may see higher cost variability
Tariff and monetary uncertainty continue to elevate landed-cost risk
Importers should retain flexible sourcing and inventory buffers
Holiday-Related Shipments Window Has Closed
Any holiday-season goods that are not already en route will not make retail cutoffs. Carriers, terminals, and last-mile networks are focused on clearing existing peak-season volume. Shippers moving consumer goods, toys, electronics, or holiday gifting products should shift focus from arrival timing to inventory positioning for Q1 and returns cycles.
Chinese New Year (CNY) Planning Underway
Factories in mainland China and surrounding manufacturing hubs will begin shutting down one to two weeks before the official CNY date. This leads to:
A surge of bookings in early and mid-January
Production slowdowns well before the actual holiday
Longer lead times and potential space tightening before factory closures
Clients with February or March inventory needs should plan now, as many suppliers will rush to finish orders before pausing operations for up to 2–3 weeks.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
From our conversations internally this week, the team and I see this period as the calm before the next cycle. Carriers are quietly repositioning vessels and containers, and what looks like a soft market on paper can tighten quickly once CNY pressure begins. We expect January to show a temporary surge in bookings as suppliers rush to get cargo out before factory closures, followed by a sharp dip in February as Asia manufacturing pauses.
For our clients, the message is simple:
This is the best time of the year to lock in space, stabilize inventory strategies, and get ahead of any Q1 supply chain needs before the market tightens again.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers — key takeaways from this week’s newsletter
Quiet Period: Carriers are reducing weekly sailings; expect schedule gaps.
Holiday Goods: The window has closed — plan now for Q1 instead of holiday arrivals.
CNY Prep: Factory closures will begin early; book January cargo now to avoid crunch.
JR Global Advice: Use this quiet period to stabilize plans before CNY tightens capacity.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
Sources
Reuters — Costco Sues to Preserve Tariff Refund Rights
Fortune — Costco Challenges IEEPA Tariffs in Court
https://fortune.com/2025/12/01/costco-trump-tariff-refunds-lawsuit-supreme-court-case-ieepa/
Newsweek — Full List of Retailers Suing Over Tariffs
https://www.newsweek.com/retailers-suing-trump-tariffs-full-list-11141335
SCOTUS Blog — IEEPA Tariff Authority Case
SupplyChain360 — Supreme Court Questions Tariff Powers
https://supplychain360.io/supreme-court-questions-trumps-use-of-tariff-powers/
Reuters — Tariffs + Macroeconomic Pressure Threaten Global Growth
Global Trade Review — UNCTAD: Global Trade Slowdown Warning
Asia production cycle data, manufacturer holiday notices, freight forwarder CNY early advisories (Dec 2025).