Newsletter [Oct 4 - Oct 10]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
Golden Week is coming to an end, and the freight market is entering an important transition period.
For much of the summer and early fall, carriers successfully maintained elevated freight conditions through strong demand, equipment constraints, congestion, and aggressive capacity management. We are now beginning to see signs of additional capacity returning to the market as fewer blank sailings are announced.
The next two to three weeks will be particularly important. If post-holiday demand remains strong, carriers may be able to maintain current market levels. If capacity returns faster than cargo volumes, we could begin seeing more competition and greater flexibility for importers.
On the customs side, this week also brought an important milestone: CAPE Phase 3 opened on October 6 for certain older, finally liquidated IEEPA entries covered by court-ordered relief. USTR also formally began the public-comment process for the 2027 USMCA joint review.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
CAPE Phase 3 Is Now Open
October 6 marked the launch of Phase 3 of CBP’s CAPE IEEPA refund process.
Phase 3 addresses certain entries that have been finally liquidated for more than 80 days and therefore could not qualify under earlier CAPE phases.
There remains an important limitation.
Phase 3 currently applies to qualifying importers that are plaintiffs in IEEPA refund litigation and have court-ordered relief allowing CBP to reliquidate the affected entries.
Importers should therefore not assume that every finally liquidated entry is now eligible for CAPE.
Phase 1 and Phase 2 processing also continue for qualifying entries.
What Importers Should Do
Importers with older IEEPA entries should review:
Liquidation dates
Whether entries were included in earlier CAPE phases
Litigation status
Protest status
ACE and ACH refund setup
JR Global continues assisting clients with CAPE eligibility analysis and refund processing.
North American Trade: USMCA Review Process Officially Begins
USTR formally opened the public-comment process this week for the 2027 joint review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).
The review is important because USMCA governs one of the world’s largest integrated trading relationships and directly affects manufacturing, automotive, agriculture, and cross-border supply chains throughout North America.
The review process will give businesses and other stakeholders an opportunity to comment on how the agreement is functioning and what changes should be considered.
This comes at a particularly important time given the ongoing U.S.–Canada trade dispute and broader changes in U.S. tariff policy.
Why Importers Should Care
Companies sourcing or manufacturing across North America should continue reviewing:
USMCA qualification
Rules of origin
Supplier documentation
Country-of-origin determinations
Cross-border sourcing strategy
We expect USMCA to become an increasingly important trade-policy topic as we move toward 2027.
Customs Compliance: CBP Looking for Greater Supply-Chain Visibility
CBP’s broader customs-enforcement agenda also continues moving forward.
The agency is considering enhanced import disclosure requirements intended to provide greater visibility into international supply chains.
Potential areas of increased disclosure include foreign manufacturers, exporters, beneficial ownership, production information, and foreign customs documentation.
While final requirements have not yet been implemented, the direction is increasingly clear:
CBP wants greater visibility beyond the immediate U.S. importer and customs entry.
For importers, maintaining accurate supplier, manufacturer, origin, and production documentation will become increasingly important as these requirements develop.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Post-Golden Week Capacity Begins to Return
China’s Golden Week ends October 7, and attention is now shifting toward what happens when factories and logistics operations return.
The most interesting development this week is that carriers are currently planning fewer blank sailings than we saw heading into the holiday.
Across the major East–West trades, Drewry expects 39 cancelled sailings over the next five weeks, representing approximately 5% of scheduled sailings. Approximately 95% of scheduled sailings are currently expected to operate.
That is a meaningful change from the aggressive capacity reductions we saw heading into Golden Week.
Our View
This doesn’t mean the freight market is suddenly soft.
Trans-Pacific conditions remain elevated, equipment availability can still vary significantly by origin, and carriers remain willing to remove capacity if utilization weakens.
But additional scheduled capacity gives importers something we have not had consistently over the past several months: the potential for more competition between carriers.
The next question is whether post-Golden Week cargo demand is strong enough to absorb that capacity.
If not, we may finally begin seeing greater pricing flexibility later in October.
Demand Remains Resilient: U.S. Imports Hit Another Record
There is also a reason not to assume freight conditions will soften immediately.
New government data showed U.S. imports reached a record level in August, with total imports increasing significantly from July. Capital-goods imports were particularly strong, supported in part by investment in AI and technology infrastructure.
Despite the significant tariff changes implemented throughout 2026, U.S. demand for imported goods remains resilient.
For ocean freight, this creates an interesting balance:
More capacity is beginning to return
Carriers are reducing blank sailings
But underlying U.S. import demand remains strong
That balance will help determine the direction of the freight market through the remainder of October.
Global Routing: More Container Services Return to the Suez Canal
Another development worth watching is the gradual return of container services to the Suez Canal.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have been progressively restoring additional Gemini Cooperation services through the Suez route as security conditions permit.
This matters beyond the Asia–Europe trade.
Routing around the Cape of Good Hope consumes significantly more vessel time and effectively removes capacity from the global network. A sustained return to Suez would shorten rotations and gradually release additional vessel capacity.
However, carriers remain cautious, and geopolitical risk in the region has not disappeared.
What This Means
If Suez normalization continues while post-Golden Week capacity also returns, the global container market could eventually experience greater effective capacity.
That could create additional downward pressure on freight conditions later in the year.
For now, we view this as an important trend to monitor rather than a complete return to normal operations.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
The next several weeks could finally provide clarity on whether the elevated freight environment we’ve experienced throughout the summer can continue.
There are now competing forces in the market.
Supporting higher freight conditions:
Resilient U.S. import demand
Equipment constraints at specific origins
Carrier capacity discipline
Continued geopolitical uncertainty
Potentially creating downward pressure:
More post-Golden Week capacity
Fewer blank sailings
Additional Suez Canal transits
Seasonal demand normalization
Our team will be watching actual booking demand closely as China returns from Golden Week.
If capacity begins exceeding demand, importers may finally see greater negotiating flexibility. If post-holiday cargo absorbs the additional capacity, elevated conditions could continue further into the fourth quarter.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Golden Week ends October 7.
Carriers are currently planning fewer blank sailings after the holiday.
Approximately 95% of scheduled major East–West sailings are expected to operate over the next five weeks.
U.S. imports reached another record level in August.
More container services are gradually returning to the Suez Canal.
CAPE Phase 3 opened October 6 for certain qualifying finally liquidated IEEPA entries.
Phase 3 is not currently a universal opening for every importer with older liquidated entries.
USTR has officially started the public-comment process for the 2027 USMCA joint review.
CBP continues moving toward greater importer and supply-chain disclosure requirements.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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For the first time in several months, we are beginning to see conditions that could create greater competition in the freight market.
That does not mean rates will immediately decline. Strong U.S. import demand and carrier capacity management remain significant counterweights.
The next several weeks after Golden Week should provide a much clearer indication of where the market is heading into the end of the year.
On the customs side, CAPE Phase 3, the USMCA review, and CBP’s broader compliance initiatives reinforce the importance of reviewing both logistics and customs strategy together.
For upcoming shipments, CAPE refund assistance, USMCA questions, or customs compliance reviews, contact our team.