Newsletter [Sept 27 - Oct 3]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
China’s Golden Week begins this week, bringing the freight market to an important transition point.
Trans-Pacific conditions remain elevated, with carriers continuing to remove capacity through blank sailings. However, the question is beginning to shift from how high the market can move to what happens once China returns from the holiday.
We expect the post-Golden Week market to provide an important indication of fourth-quarter freight conditions. If demand moderates while carriers restore capacity, importers could begin seeing greater competition. If carriers continue aggressively managing capacity, elevated conditions may persist.
There was also significant trade news this week. The United States and China announced the next step in their new Board of Trade framework, identifying billions of dollars of non-sensitive products that could potentially receive more favorable tariff treatment.
For importers, this is encouraging—but no duty reductions should be assumed until formal implementation guidance is issued.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
U.S. and China Move Toward Selective Tariff Relief
One of the biggest trade developments this week came from the newly established U.S.–China Board of Trade.
The United States and China have recommended approximately $30 billion of non-sensitive trade in each direction for potentially more favorable tariff treatment. (United States Trade Representative)
For products entering the United States, the recommendations include categories such as:
Toys
Small appliances
Holiday decorations
Children’s car seats
For U.S. exports to China, potential beneficiaries include agricultural products, seafood, wood products, cosmetics, and medical devices.
Important: Tariffs Have Not Changed Yet
These recommendations should not currently be treated as a tariff reduction.
Additional implementation steps are still required before importers can apply any reduced duty treatment.
The development is nevertheless significant because it suggests the U.S.–China trade relationship may be moving toward a more selective model: maintaining pressure on strategic or sensitive products while potentially providing relief for certain non-sensitive consumer goods.
JR Global will continue monitoring USTR and CBP guidance before advising clients to apply any new tariff treatment.
USTR U.S.–China Board of Trade Announcement
U.S. and China Continue Discussions on Rare-Earth Supply
Another important part of the U.S.–China discussions involves critical minerals.
The White House confirmed that the two countries continue working to address U.S. concerns surrounding shortages of rare earths and other critical minerals, with the goal of restoring shipment levels. (The White House)
These materials are important across industries including:
Electronics
Automotive
Batteries
Industrial equipment
Defense
Advanced manufacturing
For manufacturers dependent on Chinese critical minerals or components containing them, this remains an important supply-chain risk to monitor.
CBP’s Importer Verification Enforcement Is Now Active
CBP’s enhanced Importer of Record enforcement remains in effect following its September 18 implementation.
If CBP determines that information on an importer’s Form 5106 is incomplete or inaccurate, the agency can immediately void the Importer of Record number, preventing it from being used to make entry until the issue is corrected. (Ltnr)
Importers should ensure CBP has accurate:
Legal company information
Physical and mailing addresses
Email address
Telephone number
EIN/Importer of Record information
Customs brokers are also required to maintain a valid Power of Attorney executed directly with the Importer of Record.
If your company has changed addresses, personnel, ownership information, or contact information, now is a good time to review your importer record.
IEEPA Refund Update: CAPE Phase 3 Approaches October 6 Launch
The next major CAPE milestone is now less than a week away.
CBP has confirmed October 6 as the scheduled launch of Phase 3 of the IEEPA refund process.
Phase 3 is significant because it extends CAPE functionality to certain entries that have been finally liquidated for more than 80 days.
However, eligibility is currently limited.
Phase 3 initially applies to importers with an IEEPA refund case pending before the Court of International Trade and an applicable court order permitting reliquidation. The broader question of refunds for non-litigating importers with finally liquidated entries remains subject to litigation. (Thompson Hine LLP)
Importers should therefore not assume that every older liquidated entry becomes CAPE-eligible on October 6.
JR Global continues monitoring CBP guidance and assisting clients with CAPE eligibility and refund processing.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Golden Week Begins as Carriers Continue Managing Capacity
China’s Golden Week runs October 1–7, following immediately after the Mid-Autumn Festival.
The effects are already being felt throughout the freight market.
Carriers continue using blank sailings to adjust capacity around the holiday. Drewry currently expects 58 cancelled sailings across the major East–West trades over the next five weeks, representing approximately 8% of scheduled sailings.
Most importantly for U.S. importers, approximately 64% of those cancellations are concentrated on the eastbound Trans-Pacific. (Drewry)
Several factors continue affecting the market:
Golden Week factory closures
Blank sailings
Equipment availability at certain origins
Port congestion and vessel delays
Carrier allocation management
Ongoing geopolitical disruption
Our View
Freight conditions remain elevated, but the post-Golden Week market will be more important than the holiday itself.
Factories reopening does not immediately normalize the supply chain. Cargo that was unable to move before the holiday competes for space with new production, while blank sailings can leave fewer vessels available to absorb the backlog.
At the same time, if demand begins cooling and carriers restore capacity, greater pricing competition could emerge later in October.
We recommend maintaining flexibility rather than assuming the market will move strongly in either direction.
Schedule Reliability: Reliability Remains a Major Concern
The freight rate isn’t the only number importers should be watching.
Recent industry data showed global container schedule reliability falling for a third consecutive month, with only 29% of vessels arriving on time in August. Average delays also increased from 4.2 days to 5.1 days. (FreightWaves)
Congestion, weather disruption in Asia, longer vessel rotations, port omissions, and slow steaming have all reduced effective capacity.
This is particularly important heading into Golden Week because delayed vessels may arrive late for subsequent rotations, creating downstream disruption even after factories reopen.
What This Means for Importers
Published transit time should increasingly be treated as an estimate rather than a guaranteed delivery timeline.
For time-sensitive cargo, we recommend building additional buffer into inventory and delivery planning.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
October could finally provide greater clarity on both freight and trade policy.
On freight, we’ll be watching what happens when China returns from Golden Week.
If carriers restore capacity quickly while demand moderates, the market could become more competitive. If carriers continue blanking sailings and post-holiday cargo creates another surge in bookings, elevated conditions could persist.
On trade, the new U.S.–China Board of Trade framework is potentially significant. Selective tariff relief on products such as toys and household goods could meaningfully affect landed costs for certain importers—but we will wait for formal implementation before treating any reduction as effective.
CAPE Phase 3 is also scheduled to begin October 6, making next week particularly important on the customs side.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Golden Week begins October 1 and runs through October 7.
Carriers continue using blank sailings to manage Trans-Pacific capacity.
64% of currently announced East–West cancellations are concentrated on the eastbound Trans-Pacific. (Drewry)
Schedule reliability remains weak, increasing the importance of transit-time buffers.
The U.S. and China identified $30 billion of non-sensitive trade in each direction for potential favorable tariff treatment.
Toys, small appliances, holiday decorations, and children’s car seats are among the U.S. import categories under consideration.
No new tariff reduction should be applied yet.
U.S.–China discussions also include rare-earth and critical-mineral supply.
CBP’s stricter Importer of Record verification requirements are now active.
CAPE Phase 3 is scheduled to launch October 6 for qualifying CIT plaintiffs.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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This week brings together three issues that will shape the fourth quarter: freight capacity, U.S.–China trade policy, and customs compliance.
The end of Golden Week should provide a clearer picture of where freight pricing is heading, while the new U.S.–China trade framework could eventually create meaningful tariff opportunities for certain products.
JR Global will continue monitoring both sides closely.
If you have upcoming shipments, products potentially affected by the U.S.–China tariff discussions, or questions regarding CAPE refunds or your Importer of Record information, please contact our team.