Newsletter [Sept 13 - Sept 19]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
The freight market remains elevated as we approach one of the most important shipping periods of the fall.
Trans-Pacific pricing continues to face upward pressure, while equipment availability remains inconsistent at certain Asian origins. At the same time, carriers are increasing blank sailings ahead of China’s upcoming holidays, further tightening effective capacity on certain services.
Demand has also remained more resilient than many expected. U.S. container imports increased again in August, reinforcing what we continue to see in the market: despite higher transportation costs and an increasingly complex tariff environment, import activity remains strong.
With China’s Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week approaching, the next several weeks will require careful planning. Having flexibility between carriers, routings, and sailing dates will be increasingly important.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
Forced-Labor Enforcement Moves Further Into Focus
Forced-labor enforcement continues to become a larger component of U.S. trade policy.
On September 15, USTR convened representatives from more than 50 U.S. trading partners for training focused on imposing and effectively enforcing forced-labor import prohibitions. USTR Forced-Labor Enforcement Announcement
The development follows the implementation earlier this summer of new Section 301 measures related to forced-labor policies and enforcement.
For importers, the significance extends beyond tariffs.
Supply-chain visibility is becoming increasingly important.
Importers should maintain documentation supporting:
Country of origin
Manufacturer identity
Production location
Supplier relationships
Product classification
Supply-chain movements
Forced-labor due diligence where applicable
As enforcement becomes more targeted, knowing where and how merchandise was produced is increasingly important—not simply where it was shipped from.
Trade Dispute Begins Reshaping Supply Chains
The U.S.–Canada trade dispute also remains an important issue for North American supply chains.
Canada’s recently implemented retaliatory tariffs cover selected U.S.-origin products across multiple sectors.
Beyond the immediate tariff impact, the longer-term issue is how companies respond.
Importers, exporters, manufacturers, and retailers may begin evaluating alternative sourcing markets as higher tariffs change the economics of existing supply chains.
For companies operating across the U.S.–Canada border, this makes several areas increasingly important:
Country-of-origin analysis
USMCA qualification
Product classification
Supplier sourcing
Landed-cost calculations
Tariffs don’t simply change duty calculations. Over time, they can change the direction of trade itself.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Freight Market Remains Elevated Ahead of Golden Week
Trans-Pacific freight conditions remain elevated as we move deeper into September.
While conditions vary considerably by origin, carrier, equipment type, and service, we continue to see upward pricing pressure across many of the routes we manage.
Equipment availability also remains inconsistent at certain origins, adding another layer of complexity for importers trying to secure space.
Several factors continue supporting the market:
Equipment constraints at certain Asian origins
Carrier allocation management
Port congestion
Blank sailings
Stronger-than-expected U.S. import volumes
Upcoming Asian holidays
Elevated marine fuel costs
The combination means that available capacity on paper does not always translate into usable capacity for a particular shipment.
Our View: Earlier this summer, we expected improving capacity to eventually put greater downward pressure on freight rates. That has taken longer than anticipated.
Demand has proven resilient, operational disruptions have reduced effective capacity, and carriers have demonstrated a willingness to remove sailings to maintain the balance between supply and demand.
That makes what happens around Golden Week particularly important.
For upcoming shipments, we recommend providing forecasts and booking requests as early as possible rather than waiting until cargo is ready.
Golden Week: Carriers Increase Blank Sailings Ahead of China’s Holidays
Capacity management is becoming an increasingly important part of the freight story.
According to Drewry’s latest Cancelled Sailings Tracker, carriers have significantly increased announced blank sailings around the Golden Week period, with a substantial portion of the cancellations concentrated on the eastbound Trans-Pacific. Drewry Cancelled Sailings Tracker
This is particularly important because we are approaching two major Chinese holidays:
Mid-Autumn Festival: September 25–27
Golden Week: October 1–7
Factories, offices, trucking operations, warehouses, and other parts of the logistics network can experience reduced availability around these periods.
The effects can also extend beyond the holidays themselves.
Cargo pushed from a cancelled sailing must compete for space on subsequent vessels, potentially creating additional pressure immediately following Golden Week.
What Importers Should Do
Cargo scheduled to move before or immediately after the holiday period should be planned now.
The risk isn’t simply higher freight costs. Equipment shortages, vessel cancellations, and rolled bookings can create considerably larger problems for time-sensitive shipments.
Maintaining flexibility between carriers and routings will provide more options if conditions tighten further.
U.S. Imports: Demand Remains Resilient
U.S. container imports remained strong in August, increasing from July and contributing to one of the stronger import months of the year.
That is important because the current freight market isn’t being driven by one single factor.
Instead, several pressures are occurring simultaneously:
Resilient U.S. imports
Asian port congestion
Equipment positioning challenges
Carrier capacity management
Golden Week capacity reductions
Elevated fuel costs
If demand remains firm while carriers continue removing capacity, space could remain tight even after China’s holiday period.
This is one of the key indicators we will be watching heading into the fourth quarter.
Elevated Fuel Costs Add Another Layer of Pressure
Marine fuel costs also remain an important factor for global shipping.
Geopolitical disruption and uncertainty surrounding major energy shipping routes have kept bunker costs elevated.
For ocean carriers, higher fuel expenses increase voyage operating costs and can ultimately appear through bunker adjustments, emergency surcharges, or broader freight pricing.
While fuel alone does not determine ocean freight rates, it provides another layer of cost pressure at a time when capacity and equipment are already constrained.
JR Global LCL Spotlight
Promotional Thailand → New York LCL Consolidation
With FCL costs elevated, LCL can provide an attractive alternative for importers that do not need an entire container.
JR Global is currently offering a promotional consolidation rate:
Laem Chabang, Thailand → New York
$185 / CBM Ocean Freight
Our consolidation service provides importers with the ability to move smaller shipments without waiting until they have enough cargo to fill an entire container.
This can be particularly useful for:
Smaller purchase orders
Regular inventory replenishment
Sample and initial production orders
Importers looking to reduce inventory commitments
Cargo that cannot wait for the next FCL order
JR Global can coordinate the shipment from origin consolidation through arrival in New York, with customs clearance and final delivery services also available.
Contact our team for current sailing schedules and promotional availability.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
The next several weeks should provide an important indication of where the freight market is headed for the remainder of the year.
Demand has held up better than expected, while carriers are becoming increasingly aggressive with capacity management ahead of Golden Week.
The most important factor we’re watching isn’t simply the direction of freight rates.
It’s available capacity after Golden Week.
If carriers restore sailings quickly and demand begins cooling, the market could finally see greater pricing competition.
If capacity remains controlled while demand stays resilient, elevated Trans-Pacific conditions could continue further into the fourth quarter.
We are also closely monitoring equipment availability. Even if overall capacity improves, shortages at specific origins can continue affecting individual shipments.
For now, early planning and flexibility remain the best approach.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Trans-Pacific freight conditions remain elevated.
Equipment availability remains inconsistent at certain Asian origins.
Carriers are increasing blank sailings ahead of Golden Week.
A significant portion of announced cancellations are concentrated on the eastbound Trans-Pacific.
U.S. container import demand remains resilient.
Elevated marine fuel costs continue adding pressure to carrier operating costs.
China’s Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week are approaching.
Forced-labor enforcement continues receiving increased U.S. trade-policy attention.
The U.S.–Canada trade dispute continues affecting cross-border supply chains.
JR Global’s promotional Laem Chabang → New York LCL consolidation is available at $185/CBM.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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