Newsletter [Sept 20 - Sept 26]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
The freight market remains elevated heading into China’s upcoming holiday period, with Trans-Pacific pricing continuing to move higher and carriers actively managing capacity through blank sailings.
But this week, the bigger concern may be reliability rather than price alone.
Global container schedule reliability deteriorated again in August, with only 29% of vessels arriving on time. Port congestion, weather disruption across Asia, longer vessel rotations, and ongoing geopolitical issues continue to reduce effective capacity even when scheduled vessel space appears available.
On the customs side, there are two important developments. CBP’s stricter Importer of Record enforcement took effect September 18, meaning inaccurate importer information can now result in an IOR number being immediately voided. CBP has also confirmed an October 6 launch for CAPE Phase 3 for certain finally liquidated IEEPA refund entries.
As we approach Golden Week, the message this week is simple: plan for additional transit time, confirm importer information is accurate, and avoid waiting until cargo is ready to secure space.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
CBP Begins Immediately Voiding Inaccurate Importer Records
An important CBP enforcement change took effect September 18.
CBP has begun immediately voiding Importer of Record numbers when required importer information is found to be inaccurate or incomplete.
Once an IOR number is voided, it cannot be used to make entry until the importer record is corrected.
That creates the possibility of cargo arriving in the United States but being unable to clear Customs because of an administrative issue with the importer’s record.
Importers should review their CBP Form 5106 information and make sure the following remain current:
Legal company name
Business address
Email address
Telephone number
Responsible party information
Tax/Importer of Record information
Why This Matters
CBP has been signaling all year that importer verification and accountability would become a larger enforcement priority.
This is one of the first changes where an administrative compliance issue can have an immediate operational consequence.
If you’re unsure whether your Importer of Record information is current, JR Global can assist with reviewing and updating your CBP importer record.
IEEPA Refund Update: CAPE Phase 3 Confirmed for October 6
CBP has now confirmed that CAPE Phase 3 is scheduled to launch October 6, 2026.
Phase 3 is designed to address certain finally liquidated entries that could not be processed through the earlier CAPE phases.
However, there is an important limitation.
Based on CBP’s September 15 declaration to the Court of International Trade, Phase 3 initially applies to importers that are plaintiffs in IEEPA refund litigation and have obtained a court order requiring reliquidation of their entries.
Importers that provided their valid Importer of Record number to CBP by July 30 will be able to begin filing eligible Phase 3 declarations on October 6. Additional instructions are expected for other eligible plaintiffs.
This means Phase 3 should not currently be interpreted as an automatic opening for every importer with older finally liquidated entries.
Refund Processing Continues
CBP also reported significant progress processing existing CAPE claims.
More than 286,000 CAPE declarations have been submitted, covering millions of entries, and approximately $122 billion including interest has been certified and transmitted to Treasury for payment.
One particularly important issue remains: CBP reported that thousands of refunds remain on hold because importers have not provided valid ACH banking information.
Importers expecting refunds should confirm their ACE Portal and ACH refund information is properly established.
JR Global can assist clients with reviewing eligibility, ACE setup, and CAPE submissions.
U.S.–Canada Trade: Trade Tensions Continue Affecting Cross-Border Supply Chains
The U.S.–Canada trade dispute remains another issue we’re monitoring.
New U.S. tariffs and Canadian retaliatory measures are already creating pressure on cross-border trade and Canadian economic activity. The Bank of Canada warned this week that the new U.S. tariffs could materially reduce Canada’s fourth-quarter economic growth.
For companies operating integrated North American supply chains, the situation reinforces the importance of:
USMCA qualification
Country-of-origin analysis
Classification
Alternative sourcing
Landed-cost review
We expect companies on both sides of the border to continue evaluating sourcing and supply-chain alternatives as the dispute develops.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Freight Market Remains Firm Ahead of Golden Week
Trans-Pacific freight conditions moved higher again this past week as pre-holiday demand and carrier capacity management continue supporting the market.
Carriers are using blank sailings to manage available space ahead of China’s Golden Week. Drewry currently expects 77 cancelled sailings across the major East-West trades over the next five weeks, representing approximately 11% of scheduled sailings.
Importantly for U.S. importers, approximately 55% of those cancellations are concentrated on the eastbound Trans-Pacific.
The market continues to be supported by:
Pre-Golden Week cargo movement
Blank sailings
Equipment constraints at certain origins
Asian port congestion
Elevated fuel costs
Strong carrier capacity management
Ongoing geopolitical disruption
Our View
We continue to see elevated freight conditions, but pricing alone doesn’t tell the entire story.
Equipment availability and actual usable capacity can vary significantly by origin, carrier, sailing, and equipment type. A vessel may technically have space while the equipment or allocation required for a particular shipment is unavailable.
For cargo moving before or immediately after Golden Week, early booking remains particularly important.
Schedule Reliability: Only 29% of Container Vessels Arrived On Time
One of the most important logistics developments this week was new data showing how significantly global schedule reliability has deteriorated.
According to Xeneta, global container schedule reliability fell for the third consecutive month in August, with only 29% of vessels arriving on time.
Average delays also increased from 4.2 days to 5.1 days.
The situation was particularly severe on the Far East–Europe trade, but disruptions in Asia can eventually affect North American services as delayed vessels arrive late, miss subsequent port windows, and disrupt future rotations.
Four consecutive typhoons in China contributed to significant backlogs around Ningbo, Shanghai, and Yantian.
What This Means for Importers
Published transit time should increasingly be treated as an estimate rather than a guaranteed delivery timeline.
For time-sensitive cargo, we recommend building additional buffer into inventory planning—particularly around China’s upcoming holidays.
Golden Week: Holiday Disruption Is About to Begin
China’s holiday period is now immediately ahead:
Mid-Autumn Festival: September 25–27
Golden Week: October 1–7
Factories, trucking companies, warehouses, origin offices, and other parts of the supply chain may operate at reduced capacity.
The impact can extend beyond the actual holiday dates.
Pre-holiday demand concentrates cargo into fewer sailings, while blank sailings during and immediately after Golden Week can create backlogs when factories reopen.
Importers with October cargo should therefore begin planning now rather than waiting until production is complete.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
The next several weeks will be important for determining how the freight market enters the fourth quarter.
Immediately, the focus is Golden Week.
Pre-holiday cargo, blank sailings, equipment positioning, and deteriorating schedule reliability are keeping Trans-Pacific conditions firm.
After Golden Week, we will be watching how quickly carriers restore capacity.
If capacity returns while demand begins moderating, greater pricing competition could emerge. If carriers continue aggressively managing sailings and operational delays keep vessels out of position, elevated conditions could persist further into the fourth quarter.
On customs, importer compliance is becoming increasingly important. The September 18 IOR enforcement change is another indication that CBP intends to place greater responsibility on importers and brokers to maintain accurate information and supply-chain documentation.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Trans-Pacific freight conditions remain elevated ahead of Golden Week.
77 blank sailings are expected across major East-West trades over the next five weeks.
Approximately 55% of those cancellations are concentrated on the eastbound Trans-Pacific.
Global container schedule reliability fell to only 29% in August.
Average vessel delays increased to more than five days.
China’s Mid-Autumn Festival begins September 25, followed by Golden Week October 1–7.
CBP began immediately voiding inaccurate or incomplete Importer of Record numbers on September 18.
CAPE Phase 3 is scheduled to launch October 6 for certain eligible finally liquidated entries.
Phase 3 initially applies to qualifying importers involved in IEEPA refund litigation.
U.S.–Canada trade tensions continue affecting cross-border supply chains.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
Follow Us
Stay in the loop with JR Global
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/shipjrglobal
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@shipjrglobal
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/shipjrglobal
Join Our Team
We are hiring at JR Global