Newsletter [Aug 2 - Aug 8]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
The freight market is beginning to show signs of a transition.
Carriers successfully pushed another round of rate increases, but we are seeing more resistance than during previous GRIs. Space is becoming available on certain Trans-Pacific services, while carriers continue using blank sailings to control capacity and defend current pricing. Recent market reporting also shows carriers offering discounts ahead of August GRIs, suggesting the balance between supply and demand may be starting to shift.
On the customs side, the expiration of Section 122 did not mean the end of tariff pressure. The new Section 301 measures are now in effect across dozens of trading partners, making country of origin, classification and sourcing strategy increasingly important.
At JR Global, we’re watching both sides closely. The next few weeks should provide greater clarity on whether freight rates can hold and how importers adjust to the new tariff environment.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
Section 301 Is Now the New Tariff Reality
Following the expiration of the temporary Section 122 surcharge, USTR has taken final action under Section 301 against 60 trading partners related to their treatment of imports produced with forced labor.
The new additional duties are generally 10% or 12.5%, depending on the trading partner and applicable conditions, with certain product exemptions.
This represents an important shift for importers.
Instead of one broad temporary tariff, landed-cost calculations are becoming increasingly dependent on:
Country of origin
HTS classification
Applicable Section 301 measures
Section 232 exposure
AD/CVD exposure
Available exclusions or special treatment
Key takeaway: tariff planning is becoming increasingly country- and product-specific. Importers should review landed costs before making sourcing decisions rather than assuming the same additional tariff applies across origins.
More Section 301 Investigations Remain Active
The current Section 301 actions may not be the end of the story.
USTR continues to list additional active investigations, including Vietnam’s intellectual-property practices and Germany’s policies regarding innovative pharmaceutical products.
These investigations do not automatically mean additional tariffs will be imposed. However, they reinforce the broader trend toward using Section 301 as a targeted trade-policy tool.
We expect country of origin to remain an increasingly important consideration for sourcing and customs planning throughout the remainder of 2026.
CBP Enforcement Continues to Intensify
CBP is also reinforcing its focus on duty evasion and trade enforcement.
CBP recently reported that Enforce and Protect Act investigations have identified approximately $1 billion in duty evasion, a record milestone for the program. EAPA specifically targets evasion of antidumping and countervailing duties.
For importers, this reinforces the importance of maintaining defensible documentation supporting:
Country of origin
Classification
Valuation
Manufacturer information
AD/CVD applicability
Supply-chain relationships
As tariffs become increasingly country-specific, we expect origin and transshipment enforcement to remain a major area of Customs scrutiny.
CAPE Refund Update
CBP continues administering IEEPA refunds through the CAPE process in ACE.
For eligible importers, proper ACE access, banking information and entry review remain important as the refund program continues moving through its phased implementation.
JR Global continues assisting clients with identifying eligible entries and navigating the refund process.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Freight Rates Increase, But Can They Hold?
The latest round of GRIs pushed rates higher across several Asia–U.S. trade lanes. However, we believe this increase may prove more difficult for carriers to maintain than previous rounds.
There are early signs of increased pricing competition as space becomes available on select services. Recent market reporting indicates carriers have begun offering discounts ahead of additional August rate increases.
That does not mean capacity is wide open.
Carriers continue aggressively managing supply through blank sailings. Drewry currently projects 58 cancelled sailings across the major East-West trades between August 3 and September 6, representing approximately 8% of scheduled sailings. Roughly 60% of those cancellations are concentrated on the eastbound Trans-Pacific.
Our view: rates remain elevated, but the market is becoming more competitive. If space continues opening while demand moderates, carriers may have difficulty maintaining every announced increase through August.
Importers should continue booking early, but this is also a market where evaluating multiple routing options can create opportunities.
Hormuz Remains a Major Supply Chain Risk
While conditions have improved from the height of the Middle East disruption, the situation remains far from normalized.
Diplomatic efforts toward ending the U.S.–Iran conflict showed progress this week, although significant disagreements remain. Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also remains disrupted, making the region an ongoing source of risk for global shipping and energy markets.
The longer-term impact extends beyond vessels physically operating in the region. Disruption has affected equipment positioning, vessel rotations, insurance costs and fuel markets throughout global transportation networks.
For importers, this remains an important wildcard that could quickly change otherwise improving freight conditions.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
August will be an important month for determining the direction of the freight market.
Carriers are attempting to defend elevated rates through additional GRIs and blank sailings, but improving space availability is beginning to create resistance. If booking demand does not strengthen, we could see greater pricing competition as the month progresses.
At the same time, Middle East developments remain capable of quickly changing fuel costs, vessel availability and global routing.
On customs, the picture is becoming clearer: Section 122 has ended, but tariff pressure has not. Section 301 is becoming a more important part of the trade-policy landscape, and importers should expect country of origin and product classification to play an even larger role in landed-cost strategy.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Freight rates increased again, but the latest GRI may be harder to sustain.
Space is beginning to improve on certain services.
Carriers are countering that improvement with significant blank sailings.
58 blank sailings are currently projected across major East-West trades over the next five weeks.
Middle East shipping risk remains elevated despite progress toward de-escalation.
New Section 301 tariffs of generally 10% or 12.5% now affect 60 trading partners.
Additional Section 301 investigations remain active.
CBP continues intensifying duty-evasion enforcement.
CAPE refund processing remains ongoing.
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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