Newsletter [June 14 - June 20]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
The ocean freight market has shifted significantly over the past several weeks.
What began as a gradual increase in rates has quickly developed into an early peak season environment. Carriers have successfully implemented multiple rounds of General Rate Increases (GRIs), and while some increases have settled below the original announcements, the important takeaway is that pricing increases continue holding in the market.
The bigger challenge today is no longer only cost — it is securing space.
Even when importers are prepared to move forward at current market levels, vessel space out of Asia has become extremely limited due to stronger demand, capacity controls, equipment imbalances, and ongoing network disruptions.
Early planning and forecasting are becoming critical.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
CBP Moving Toward Stronger Importer Compliance Requirements
CBP is preparing for a major shift toward increased importer accountability and supply chain transparency.
Upcoming changes are expected to include:
Enhanced importer vetting
Additional ownership and business disclosures
Increased bond and financial responsibility requirements
Importer compliance status monitoring
Greater supply chain documentation requirements
The largest importer registration and compliance changes are expected to roll out over the coming months as CBP completes implementation guidance.
For importers, compliance is becoming a larger part of supply chain planning — not just a customs requirement.
Middle East Update: Positive Developments, But Logistics Recovery Takes Time
Recent diplomatic developments involving Iran and the Middle East have provided some optimism that geopolitical tensions may ease.
However, supply chains do not recover immediately.
Months of disruption have already created:
Longer vessel rotations
Equipment imbalances
Higher operating costs
Schedule instability
Even if conditions improve, carriers need time to reposition vessels, normalize schedules, and rebalance equipment globally.
This is why the market can continue experiencing tight capacity and elevated rates even while geopolitical conditions improve.
IEEPA Refund Update
CAPE refund processing continues moving forward, with importers beginning to receive payments back from CBP.
Current observations:
Refund payments are being processed through ACE
Payments include applicable government interest
Many refunds are being issued as individual entries are processed rather than one consolidated payment
While Phase 1 refunds continue progressing, ongoing litigation may still impact certain entries outside the current CAPE scope.
Importers should continue monitoring:
Refund status
Liquidation dates
Protest deadlines
Future CBP guidance
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Freight Rates Continue Rising as Capacity Tightens
Carriers continued pushing additional rate increases this week, with another round of mid-June GRIs taking effect.
While some carriers initially announced increases as high as several thousand dollars per container, actual market increases have adjusted lower — but still represent a significant increase from previous levels.
The key point is that carriers have been successful in maintaining these increases.
Several factors are driving current conditions:
Early peak season shipping demand
Importers accelerating shipments due to tariff uncertainty
Blank sailings and capacity management
Vessel schedule disruptions
Equipment positioning challenges
Higher operating costs
Space availability has become the biggest challenge. Many Asia origins are experiencing tighter allocation, longer booking windows, and increased rollover risk.
We recommend clients with upcoming shipments communicate forecasts as early as possible so we can secure options before space becomes limited.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
The next several weeks will be important in determining how long this tighter market continues.
Our team is monitoring:
Additional carrier GRIs
Asia origin space availability
Equipment positioning
Middle East developments
CBP compliance implementation
CAPE refund progress
At this stage, the market has moved from excess capacity to a carrier-controlled environment.
Planning ahead remains the strongest way to protect cost, timing, and reliability.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Freight rates continue increasing after successful GRIs
Mid-June increases are holding, though below initial announcements
Space availability out of Asia is now the biggest challenge
Earlier booking and forecasting are strongly recommended
Middle East improvements will take time to translate into logistics recovery
CBP is preparing stricter importer compliance requirements
CAPE refunds continue processing with interest
Refunds are being received by entry as CBP completes reviews
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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