Newsletter [May 17 - May 23]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
What initially looked like market stabilization is increasingly becoming a period of controlled tightening.
Over the past week, carriers successfully pushed rates higher across several trade lanes following new GRIs, while continuing to manage capacity aggressively through blank sailings and allocation controls. At the same time, operational inefficiencies tied to Middle East rerouting and longer vessel cycles continue building underneath the surface.
On the customs side, CAPE refund activity continues scaling rapidly as importers actively begin recovering IEEPA duties through ACE.
The market remains manageable — but flexibility is tightening.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
CAPE Refund Activity Continues Scaling Through ACE
CAPE refund submissions continue increasing rapidly as importers move from preparation into active recovery of IEEPA duties.
Current Phase Includes:
Unliquidated entries
Entries liquidated within approximately 80 days
Entries under extension, suspension, or review
Warehouse entries and withdrawals
Current Expectations:
Refund processing timelines remain approximately 60–90 days
Refunds expected to include applicable government interest
Refunds issued electronically via ACH only
Submission activity has now exceeded 75,000 declarations, reinforcing the scale of refund processing moving through ACE.
At the same time, tariff uncertainty remains active. This past week, the Federal Circuit temporarily stayed portions of the Section 122 tariff ruling pending appeal, reinforcing that trade policy and tariff exposure remain fluid.
As processing volume grows, proper sequencing, eligibility review, and ACE readiness continue becoming increasingly important.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Carriers Regaining Pricing Control
Following several weeks of softer market conditions, carriers pushed another round of GRIs this past week, with rates moving higher across multiple trade lanes — particularly into the U.S. East Coast.
This reflects a broader shift:
Carriers continue aggressively managing capacity
Blank sailings remain elevated
Allocation controls are tightening
Excess capacity is being actively prevented from entering the market
Rather than reacting to disruption, carriers are now adapting their networks around it.
Middle East Routing & Network Inefficiency Continue
Ongoing Middle East tensions continue impacting vessel routing and overall network efficiency.
Carriers remain heavily reliant on:
Longer rerouting patterns
Additional consolidation port calls
Slow steaming practices
Alternative Gulf routing infrastructure
While operations remain functional, these adjustments continue contributing to:
Longer transit variability
Less predictable schedules
Reduced equipment circulation efficiency
Singapore congestion also remains elevated as transshipment volumes and rolling pools continue building across Asia networks.
Middle East Routing & Network Inefficiency Continue
Ongoing Middle East tensions continue impacting vessel routing and overall network efficiency.
Carriers remain heavily reliant on:
Longer rerouting patterns
Additional consolidation port calls
Slow steaming practices
Alternative Gulf routing infrastructure
While operations remain functional, these adjustments continue contributing to:
Longer transit variability
Less predictable schedules
Reduced equipment circulation efficiency
Singapore congestion also remains elevated as transshipment volumes and rolling pools continue building across Asia networks.
Air Freight and Inland Costs Showing Mixed Signals
While ocean pricing strengthened this week, air freight markets have remained more mixed, with some lanes softening modestly even as ocean carriers tightened pricing.
At the same time:
Fuel and emergency surcharges remain elevated
Trucking and inland transportation costs continue rising
Operational costs across logistics networks remain under pressure
This continues creating a more fragmented and mode-specific market environment.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
Current conditions remain stable operationally, but the direction of the market is becoming clearer.
Key areas we continue monitoring:
Carrier pricing discipline through GRIs and blank sailings
Equipment positioning and 20GP availability
Transit variability tied to rerouting and congestion
CAPE refund processing timelines as submissions scale
Continued surcharge and operating cost pressure
At this stage, the market is not experiencing panic tightening — but carriers are clearly regaining control over pricing and capacity management.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Freight rates increased this week following new GRIs
Carriers continue aggressive blank sailing and allocation programs
CAPE submissions now exceed 75,000 declarations
Refund timelines remain approximately 60–90 days with interest
Federal Circuit temporarily stayed portions of the Section 122 ruling pending appeal
Singapore congestion and rerouting inefficiencies remain elevated
Early signs of tighter 20GP allocation continue
Carrier pricing discipline is strengthening again
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
The market remains operationally manageable, but the environment is becoming increasingly controlled by carrier discipline and network efficiency constraints.
As pricing, allocation, and refund processing continue evolving, proactive planning and disciplined execution remain critical.
If you need assistance with CAPE submissions, ACE setup, or shipment planning, our team is available to support.
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