Newsletter [May 24 - May 30]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
This week marked a noticeable shift in market conditions, with freight rates pushing significantly higher across multiple trade lanes following another round of aggressive carrier GRIs and tighter capacity controls.
What we are seeing now is not panic-driven disruption, but a market where carriers are successfully regaining pricing control while operational inefficiencies continue building underneath the surface.
Middle East rerouting, elevated blank sailings, congestion at major transshipment hubs, and uneven equipment positioning are all contributing to tighter operational conditions heading into June.
At the same time, CAPE refund processing continues scaling as importers begin receiving the first IEEPA refund payments back from CBP.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
CAPE Refund Processing Now Moving Into Payment Phase
CAPE refund activity continues ramping up through ACE, and this past week some importers began receiving initial IEEPA refund payments from CBP.
Unlike earlier expectations of consolidated importer-level payments, CBP has been processing many refunds on an entry-by-entry basis as reliquidations are completed.
Current Expectations:
Refund timelines remain approximately 60–90 days
Refunds include applicable government interest at time of processing
Refunds issued electronically via ACH only
Current Phase Includes:
Unliquidated entries
Entries liquidated within approximately 80 days
Entries under extension, suspension, or review
Warehouse entries and withdrawals
Submission activity continues increasing rapidly, with CAPE declarations now well exceeding 75,000 filings as importers actively pursue recovery.
As processing scales, proper sequencing, eligibility review, and ACE readiness remain critical to avoiding delays and reconciliation issues.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Freight Rates Push Higher as Carrier Discipline Tightens
This week saw significant freight rate increases across several trade lanes following new GRIs and continued carrier-controlled capacity management.
Several factors are contributing to the upward pressure:
Elevated blank sailings continuing into June
Controlled carrier allocation programs
Ongoing Middle East rerouting and longer vessel cycles
Congestion at major transshipment hubs including Singapore and Busan
Growing pre-peak season booking activity following Asia holiday slowdowns
Carriers are clearly maintaining disciplined capacity management in order to prevent oversupply conditions from weakening rates too quickly.
20GP Constraints Continue Emerging in Select Lanes
We continue observing tighter allocation involving 20GP equipment, particularly in certain Asia-to-U.S. trade lanes.
This past week again required additional coordination for New York-bound shipments due to limited TEU allocation from carriers.
This does not represent a broad market-wide shortage, but it reinforces several broader operational trends:
Equipment circulation remains uneven
Containers are spending longer outside normal repositioning cycles
Carrier-controlled allocation is becoming more selective
Booking lead times are becoming increasingly important
As vessel cycles extend and blank sailings continue, equipment efficiency remains under pressure.
Market Tightening Extending Beyond Ocean Freight
This past week also highlighted broader tightening across the logistics environment:
Air freight pricing strengthened in several lanes as ocean reliability concerns continue influencing booking behavior
Fuel and emergency surcharges remain elevated across multiple transportation modes
Trucking and inland transportation costs continue trending higher
Singapore congestion remains elevated as carriers continue rerouting and consolidating cargo flows through major Asian hubs
Industry focus has increasingly shifted from reacting to disruption toward actively managing around longer-term operational inefficiencies.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
The market is increasingly transitioning from stabilization into controlled tightening.
Key areas we continue monitoring:
Additional GRIs and carrier pricing discipline
Blank sailing programs into June
Equipment positioning and 20GP allocation
Singapore and transshipment hub congestion
CAPE refund processing timelines as payment activity increases
Current conditions remain operationally manageable, but the margin for reactive planning continues narrowing as carriers regain greater control over pricing and capacity deployment.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Freight rates moved significantly higher this week following new GRIs
Carriers continue aggressive blank sailing and allocation programs
CAPE refund payments are now being issued with interest
CBP processing many refunds entry-by-entry rather than one lump sum
CAPE filings continue rapidly increasing through ACE
Early signs of tighter 20GP allocation continue
Singapore and major transshipment congestion remain elevated
Carrier pricing discipline continues strengthening into June
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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