Newsletter [May 31 - June 6]
Good Morning
A note from our CEO, Richard Roman Jr
The market has shifted quickly over the past few weeks.
What initially looked like a controlled early summer shipping environment has accelerated into an early peak season. Stronger booking activity, tighter capacity, continued geopolitical uncertainty, and carrier capacity management have allowed multiple rounds of rate increases to successfully hold in the market.
Carriers have continued announcing additional increases, including another major GRI planned for mid-June, signaling confidence that current supply and demand conditions support higher pricing.
For importers, the focus over the next several weeks is simple: plan earlier, communicate forecasts, and secure space before additional market adjustments occur.
The Roundup
What moved the world this week
Customs & Trade Policy Update
IEEPA Refunds Continue Processing Through CAPE
CAPE refund processing continues moving forward, with importers beginning to receive refund payments from CBP.
One important operational update: while the initial expectation was that refunds may arrive as consolidated importer-level payments, CBP has been processing many refunds by individual entry as reviews are completed.
Refunds include:
Applicable IEEPA duties
Government-paid interest calculated during refund processing
Current expectations remain:
Processing timeline approximately 60–90 days
Payments issued electronically through ACH
Additional phases pending further CBP confirmation
Importers should continue ensuring:
ACE Portal access is active
ACH refund banking information is complete
Importer records remain updated
Tariff Policy Remains Uncertain
While refunds are progressing, tariff policy remains an active area to monitor.
Ongoing litigation and appeals may still influence:
Timing of certain refunds
Treatment of older liquidated entries
Future tariff authority
Separately, trade discussions continue regarding potential tariff structures across major sourcing regions. Importers should continue evaluating landed cost exposure as country-specific duty rates and trade negotiations evolve.
Supply Chain & Logistics News
Freight Market Enters Early Peak Season Conditions
Ocean freight conditions have tightened significantly.
After multiple rounds of GRIs, carriers have been successful in maintaining higher rate levels — a major signal that capacity conditions have shifted.
Several factors are driving the increase:
Earlier-than-normal peak season demand
Importers advancing shipments due to tariff uncertainty
Carrier blank sailings and controlled capacity
Vessel schedule disruption
Port congestion and equipment imbalance
Higher operating costs
HMM has already announced another round of GRI adjustments effective mid-June, with other carriers expected to evaluate similar actions depending on market conditions.
The fact that multiple increases have remained in place shows carriers currently have stronger pricing power than earlier this year.
Space & Equipment Availability Tightening
The biggest challenge is no longer just pricing — it is securing reliable space.
Several Asia origins are seeing:
Longer booking lead times
Tighter vessel allocations
Increased rollover risk
Equipment positioning challenges
20GP equipment remains an area we continue watching closely.
This does not mean shipments cannot move, but the booking environment has changed. Last-minute planning carries a higher risk of delays compared to earlier this year.
The Forecast
Trends, goals, and what’s on the radar at JR Global
The next 30–60 days will be critical.
Our team expects carriers to continue testing the market through additional GRIs and capacity controls. Whether rates remain at these elevated levels will depend on how much demand continues after the initial rush.
If volume remains strong, carriers will likely maintain pricing discipline. If demand slows, adjustments could follow later in the summer.
From a customs perspective, CAPE refund execution remains a major focus. Importers should continue monitoring payments, reconciling refunds received, and preparing for future phases as CBP releases additional guidance.
The Shortcut
Smart tips for smart shippers
Freight rates increased significantly following successful GRIs
HMM announced another major GRI planned for mid-June
Carriers are showing stronger pricing control
Early peak season conditions are developing
Space allocation and equipment availability require earlier planning
CAPE refunds are actively being paid with interest
CBP is processing many refunds entry-by-entry
Future tariff/refund developments remain tied to ongoing litigation
The Playlist
What the JR team is listening to this week in the office
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